Seems like a lot of people do not understand the core essentials of my arguement, so I put up this nice summary.

1. Chinese auto industry is not ready to hit developed markets as of today.
2. Chinese auto industry won't become a significant factor in developed markets for another 10 years.(That's 2016)
3. There is a room for only two Chinese global players. One is SAIC. The other is expected to be FAW.
4. Chery and Geely will hit a growth wall soon as they lack the capital necessary to become truely global players.
5. Chinese auto industry will go through a major consolidation, leaving only a handful of Chinese owned companies. The rest will perish.
6. Chinese auto export will not exceed 2 million/year maximum annually. Any more will cause a trade war with the US and EU.
7. Chinese auto market resembles the US(weak domestic producers and strong foreign producers. A large domestic market) more than Japan(strong domestic producers and weak foreign importers. A small domestic market).

Thats a nice list and a sensible one but history suggests that you should not ignore the smaller players - look at the history of Honda for example.

There is room for one or two of the smaller companies to also become global players, maybe GWM and Nanjing for example. GWM although small is already a significant exporter and Nanjing already exports to and has a factory in Europe.

SAIC and FAW may have capital but they are currently not making significant progress on their own products and are dependent on their foreign partners.

I think you could add an 8th item - That the Chinese companies will in future have to pay in full for either designs or development of designs since copying will no longer be permited.

Thats a nice list and a sensible one but history suggests that you should not ignore the smaller players - look at the history of Honda for example.
I don't see quality of Honda in any of China's newcomers, a company run by a madman obsessed with engineering. Honda was a "one of a kind" case unlikely to be ever repeated.

There is room for one or two of the smaller companies to also become global players, maybe GWM and Nanjing for example. GWM although small is already a significant exporter and Nanjing already exports to and has a factory in Europe.
The fact is that only those with billions in the bank can afford to outspend and rise above competition. The car market in a developing country always repeats the same pattern. One company has slightly more cash than the others, so it outspends the competition to bring out better cars at cheaper price, driving out the competition in the process and becoming a monopoly. Much the same way GM once monopolized the US market in the 50s, ditto for Toyota and Hyundai too.

You're mostly agreed, hater.

Now, the next question is, what do you hope Chinese car industry to become? What can you do for your goal?

1. Chinese auto industry is not ready to hit developed markets as of today.
you think the whole chinese company marketing staff is STUPID???!# they say 2008 for a reason, they got experience and education. you, just sit down, read a few articles, and say the chinese cant do it. who do you think you are, you think you are smarter than bricklin?? all you ever do is drive your stupid corrolla and stare at the computer all day. i bet you havent even seen or drove a chery.

2. Chinese auto industry won't become a significant factor in developed markets for another 10 years.(That's 2016)
well guess what, your kinda behind to pack they are comming in 2008. and again you little korean dude staring at the computer, reading articles, and think that YOU ARE SO DAMN SMART WHEN YOU HAVE TOTALLY NO EXPERIENCE IN THE AUTO INDUSTRY, YOUR ONLY DAMN EXPERIENCE IS BEHIND THE WHEEL OF YOUR DAMN CORROLLA THINKING OF HOW TO BS IN THIS FORUM.

3. There is a room for only two Chinese global players. One is SAIC. The other is expected to be FAW.
well i bet you saic and faw started out as small companies too, the whole entire ford empire started with a pitty lawn mower engine bounded to two bikes. And bill gates started out fixing computers in his garage.

4. Chery and Geely will hit a growth wall soon as they lack the capital necessary to become truely global players.
ALL THE EMPLOYEES AND MARKETING STAFF FROM CHERY AND GEELY ARE NOT STUPID&*$%&*&#*%&* well hater you see capital goes out to make the car, and more capital comes back in from selling the damn cars. and where is this growth wall think your talking about, you mean the 1.3 billion people in china? or the other 5.8 billion around the world??

5. Chinese auto industry will go through a major consolidation, leaving only a handful of Chinese owned companies. The rest will perish.
oh yea, who do you think you are? god? jesus?? why dont you tell me the price of general electric two years from now, so i could make some money off of it. and again, PEOPLE WORKING IN THE CHINESE AUTO COMPANIES ARE NOT STUPID.

6. Chinese auto export will not exceed 2 million/year maximum annually. Any more will cause a trade war with the US and EU.
well you know what, a trade war would cause more damage in euro and us rather than china. how would you like to buy a t shirt not made in china for $50.00, or maby a keyboard not made in china for $450.00, or how about a iPOd not made in china for $2300.

7. Chinese auto market resembles the US(weak domestic producers and strong foreign producers. A large domestic market) more than Japan(strong domestic producers and weak foreign importers. A small domestic market).
well guess what this is all going to change, the chinese are accepting domestic brands as their quality get better, just look at that states. and since china is such a large market this means that all the foreign brands doing buisness in china are getting more and more screwed.

Everyone knows your stance on the Chinese auto industry, and have known it even before they saw any of your posts. The purpose of this forum is to inform the public of the emerging Chinese automotive market, show the world how it has progressed, and to some degree actually notify the automotive manufactures about what the English speaking world thinks about there product. So as a result, the posters exhibit an optimistic view about the future that is being created, rather than the shameful past. So, in your quest to make your point known, you are the one who has veered away from your own position. Besides, people don't disagree with your view points, they disagree with the way you express them, how you twist words to reinforce your points, and how you blow off people who have first hand experience in the world market and have seen first hand the development of the Chinese market.

they say 2008 for a reason
Chinese are not coming in 2008. Don't expect one until 2010 model year at the earliest, and those will sell poorly and be made a joke of late night talk shows.

And bill gates started out fixing computers in his garage.
No he didn't.

well hater you see capital goes out to make the car, and more capital comes back in from selling the damn cars.
Yea, $50 per car according to reports. Honda makes more money selling single Accord than 60 Cherys sold. This is why Chery can't really compete; they don't have a cash cow.

and where is this growth wall think your talking about, you mean the 1.3 billion people in china? or the other 5.8 billion around the world??
Just Chinese domestic market. Developed markets aren't growing and the other hot growing economy, India, is fairly protectionist about its own market.

a trade war would cause more damage in euro and us rather than china.
Americans and Europeans are doing fine without Chinese cars. I don't see why they would suddenly suffer when Chinese cars are banned in those markets.

how would you like to buy a t shirt not made in china for $50.00, or maby a keyboard not made in china for $450.00, or how about a iPOd not made in china for $2300.
Buy from some other countries, like India, Phillipine, etc. What, you thought only China could produce those T-shirts?

and since china is such a large market this means that all the foreign brands doing buisness in china are getting more and more screwed.
Actually all the major capacity expansion news comes from foreigners, not Chinese. I haven't heard of Chery building a new factory to accomodate their "booming" sales, whereas Japanese and Korean brands are at war to expand their production capacity past 1 million/year.

what the English speaking world thinks about there product.
I don't see too many non-Chinese on this board(Who cares about Chinese cars anyway). It is just me lone non-Chinese Vs an army of Chinese waging a war of words.

real_I_hate_china, i respect your post since you put the effort to back them up, but honestly speaking..

how did your interest in chinese cars arise, even if its a more negative outlook?

:(

real_I_hate_china, i respect your post since you put the effort to back them up, but honestly speaking..

how did your interest in chinese cars arise, even if its a more negative outlook?

:(

yea i_hate_china, what sparked your deep interest in chinese cars? how did you first hear of them?

What puzzles me is that since you hate China and Chinese cars - you sure spend a heck a lot of time doing research...

Well, fortunately there's someone like me to balance you out - as soon as a Chinese made car arrive on our shores (US of A), I'll run out to buy one.

I even want to open a car dealership selling them but I don't know where to start... :(

Well when i get back to the states which is where I am originally from, I wouldnt mind getting me a 19,000 - 25,000 dollar 400 Horsepower V8 AWD car made by Chery. So far from what I hear their products sound like they will be freaking bargains.

I sort of agree with Real_I_Hate_China about FAW and SAIC becoming the big players in Chinese Export industry and making it successful overseas in Europe and US.

I don't agree with the 2016 estimate for China to become a player in developed countries I think 2009-2010 sounds more reasonable.

I think either Chery or Geely will break into these developed markets leading the way for the rest, FAW & SAIC will sit back and learn from them.

BTW if you think China isn't ready for Western world look at the quality of the Polo Classic (Sedan) that was exported to Australia unsuccessfully.
It was up there with products from Mexico, South Africa etc

BTW if you think China isn't ready for Western world look at the quality of the Polo Classic (Sedan) that was exported to Australia unsuccessfully.
It was up there with products from Mexico, South Africa etc

How is that quality Phaeton? Have you had a chance to see it first hand?

Heard that Shanghai Volkswagen has a 5 year contract to sell 600 Polos to Australia each year, but hadn't heard that the operation was unsuccessful.

要了解这个小韩国对中国的恨意，你要先了解他的思维。这些小韩国就是把他们的自
卑感觉成自大想法，就是一种来安慰自己自卑的方法。小狗吠叫，我们大中国不
用管。

I don't agree with the 2016 estimate for China to become a player in developed countries I think 2009-2010 sounds more reasonable.
2010 is only one more generation away from current generation of Chinese vehicles. Do you honestly believe that Chinese will make a quantum leap in quality and performance in just one generation? Of course not.

BTW if you think China isn't ready for Western world look at the quality of the Polo Classic (Sedan) that was exported to Australia unsuccessfully.
It was up there with products from Mexico, South Africa etc
That Polo would be considered a German car assembled in China, not a Chinese car.

How is that quality Phaeton? Have you had a chance to see it first hand?

Heard that Shanghai Volkswagen has a 5 year contract to sell 600 Polos to Australia each year, but hadn't heard that the operation was unsuccessful.

Sales were not good, VW Australia wanted annual sales of 600 a year for 5 yrs.
They never broke the 100 unit mark during its sale here (for a year) unfortunately.

Press were excited at start of deal but some models had minor rattles that got into press vehicles, although this is not the major reason of it failing.
VW Aust. priced it very high for its class.

Another reason for its flop might be people were scared of Chinese product.

BTW Rattles are not just a Chinese cars fault most makers have minor faults like this I've read many reviews with this fault.

2010 is only one more generation away from current generation of Chinese vehicles. Do you honestly believe that Chinese will make a quantum leap in quality and performance in just one generation? Of course not.

From what I've heard here about SAIC building platforms to comply with EU Laws it could happen.



That Polo would be considered a German car assembled in China, not a Chinese car.

True, but with Chinese parts its considered part Chinese.

Another reason for its flop might be people were scared of Chinese product.
Something that Chinese posters on this forum don't understand...

From what I've heard here about SAIC building platforms to comply with EU Laws it could happen.
Actually, the company most likely to succeed among Chinese venders doesn't think they would be ready to take on the world for another 8 years. And they are using British and Korean engineered cars, not Chinese engineered cars, to make the initial push.

True, but with Chinese parts its considered part Chinese.
Well, shoppers would be trusting that VW badge, not "Made in China" tag...

2010 is only one more generation away from current generation of Chinese vehicles. Do you honestly believe that Chinese will make a quantum leap in quality and performance in just one generation? Of course not.



It's ALREADY happened, China hater!! I've talked about this before, but to refresh your memory I'll say it again..........

I first looked at A Geely car in Dec. of 2003 (the Haoqing). HORRIBLE fake wood trim, poor fit and finish, a weak underpowered engine (1.0, SOHC, no MPI) and in general a pretty bad car. Now, in 2006 (April, to be exact) - no more wood trim, A MUCH better interior with MUCH better fit and finish (nice neutral colors, comfortable seats, much better ergonomics all around), a MUCH better engine (same 1.0, but with DOHC and MPI - more power, better gas mileage) and in general a MUCH better car...........in TWO AND A HALF YEARS. This is just ONE example, and the same is true with almost ALL chinese brands (I KNOW this because I regularly go to all auto shows in Nanning, AND I follow up on that with visits to various dealers with friends) - more models being offered, better quality all around, more and more comfort features being offered as standard equipment..........it's happening FAST here. You see, you WOULDN'T KNOW THIS BECAUSE YOU ARE NOT HERE - and READING about it or seeing pics on the internet is a weak substitute for actually seeing one, sitting in one, feeling the quality of the switches, feeling the frimness and comfort of the seats, seeing and starting the engine, putting the car in gear and ACTUALLY DRIVING THE CAR!!!!

It's pretty simple, actually - you need to QUIT trying to tell us about things that you don't have REAL WORLD EXPERIENCE WITH (I know, a futile request - you will continue to sit in front of your computer and read things on the internet and try and tell us how right you are and how wrong we are...even though WE are the ones who ACTUALLY see and drive these cars and NOT you). Now, to be fair about things..............the current generation of chinese cars are STILL not up to the level of what is needed to be competitive in most foreign developed markets (especially the USA). I make NO arguement concerning that - the chinese auto companies still have a lot of things to improve on. HOWEVER, based on the level of progress and improvement they are achieving in a VERY short period of time, 2009-2010 is NOT a unrealistic goal for them as far as marketing a product that CAN be competitive in the USA. I DO know this - the american car-buying public can be fickle at times, and a new, unique product CAN become a sales sensation (I refer again to Hyundai in 1986 - the Excel was NOT a great car, but the VERY attractive price allowed it to set a sales record for first year models that has yet to be equaled). I DON'T think any chinese car (no matter NOW good it might be at that time) will become that popular..........but I DON'T think that it will be a failure either. I'm not being positive or negative - I am being REALISTIC...........something you might consider trying sometime, China hater.

Now, in 2006 (April, to be exact) - no more wood trim, A MUCH better interior with MUCH better fit and finish (nice neutral colors, comfortable seats, much better ergonomics all around), a MUCH better engine (same 1.0, but with DOHC and MPI - more power, better gas mileage) and in general a MUCH better car...........in TWO AND A HALF YEARS.
Still not up to 2000's standard.

Now, to be fair about things..............the current generation of chinese cars are STILL not up to the level of what is needed to be competitive in most foreign developed markets (especially the USA).
By your own admission Chinese cars are not competitive in developed markets. Thank you for proving my points.

HOWEVER, based on the level of progress and improvement they are achieving in a VERY short period of time, 2009-2010 is NOT a unrealistic goal for them as far as marketing a product that CAN be competitive in the USA.
Why do you think Toyota and Hyundai of 2010 will be same as Toyota and Hyundai of 2006? The major players are moving targets; very fast ones to hit indeed.

(I refer again to Hyundai in 1986 - the Excel was NOT a great car, but the VERY attractive price allowed it to set a sales record for first year models that has yet to be equaled).
Hyundai Excel was essentially a fully up to date Mitsubishi econobox sold at a big discount. The car was up to date engineering wise; what it didn't have was quality of Japanese.

Japanese smarted from this lesson and something like this won't ever be repeated.

I am being REALISTIC...........something you might consider trying sometime, China hater
I am the one being realistic; you are not.

YOU are the one being realistic, and I am not????????? GIVE ME A FU**ING BREAK!!!!!! I AM the one who can make REAL WORLD comparisons (as well as other posters like fightingtorque) regarding BOTH western and chinese autos..........you CANNOT say that because you have NEVER driven (let alone even SEEN WITH YOUR OWN EYES) ANY chinese auto. I have driven MANY of the autos available in the USA (Toyota, Nissan, Honda, Acura, Mercedes, VW as well as most of the domestic offerings) AND I have driven Geely, Hafei, Xiali, Chery, SMA as well as some of the imported brands that are built in China (Spark, Peugeot, Citroen, VW and a few others). My conclusions are based on EXPERIENCE - REAL WORLD DRIVING EXPERIENCE. YOUR conclusions are based on what you read on the computer...........in other words NO EXPERIENCE WHATSOEVER.

The other thing? I DID NOT prove a point for you! You took ONE SENTENCE of my previous post, twisted it and took it out of context and made it sound like I am supporting you.........SHOVE IT, CHINA HATER. NO ONE HERE on this forum disputes the fact that chinese autos are NOT the equal of western autos..............yet. We DO dispute the fact that YOU TRY AND TELL US HOW BAD CHINESE AUTOS ARE................WHEN YOU HAVE NEVER GOTTEN OF YOUR ASS AND COME TO CHINA TO ACTUALLY SEE AND DRIVE THEM FOR YOURSELF!!!!!!!!!!!! My POINT was the fact that 2009-2010 IS a realistic goal for chinese autos to enter the american market.........and YOU dispute that even though your conclusions are based on what??? NOTHING EXCEPT what you read on the internet!!!!!!

People like you are what slow the progress of the world down with your arrogant, close minded attitude. The world is fortunate, though that people like you are in the minority - MOST of us (at least on this forum) have a open mind and get out there and SEE and EXPERIENCE the world with our own eyes..........instead of looking at it through a computer screen.

You took ONE SENTENCE of my previous post, twisted it and took it out of context and made it sound like I am supporting you.........
Well, those were your own words. I didn't make up those, I simply cut and pasted what you said.

NO ONE HERE on this forum disputes the fact that chinese autos are NOT the equal of western autos..............yet.
And they won't be equal for another 20 years. Chinese might have something that's actually marketable in 10 years, and come 95% of industry leaders in 20 years. In the mean time, western buyers will be laughing at the first batch of Chinese cars arriving at port in 2010.

And they won't be equal for another 20 years. Chinese might have something that's actually marketable in 10 years, and come 95% of industry leaders in 20 years. In the mean time, western buyers will be laughing at the first batch of Chinese cars arriving at port in 2010.

Yes, western buyers WILL be laughing.............laughing with JOY when they realize that chinese cars will be able to offer almost ALL of the performance, comfort AND reliability of their western counterparts - for a CONSIDERABLY lower price! :thumb: :lol: :nod:

And they won't be equal for another 20 years. Chinese might have something that's actually marketable in 10 years, and come 95% of industry leaders in 20 years. In the mean time, western buyers will be laughing at the first batch of Chinese cars arriving at port in 2010.
WHO THE F**K DO YOU THINK YOU ARE??? GOD?? COMPARE TO ALL THE F**KEN PPL WHO WORK IN THE AUTO INDUSTRY, YOUR JUST A SIMPLY NAIVE KOREAN GUY READING ARTICLES THEN BULL SHITTING ALL THIS CRAP ABOUT 10 YEARS 20 YEARS ETC ETC. YOU HAVENT EVEN SEEN THE M14, THE NEW CROSSOVER, THE S12 ETC ETC ETC, YOU JUST SIT ON YOUR ASS TRYING TO SCREW EVERYONE IN THINKING THAT CHINA SUCKS, CHINA CARS SUCK, AND CHINA PPL SUCK, WHEN THE ONE WHO REALLY SUCK LIKE CRAP IS YOU. YOU JUST CANT SEEM TO OVERCOME THE FACT THAT CHINA IS DOING SO GOOD, WHILE THE KOREANS ARE GETTING MORE SCREWED DAY BY DAY.

btw jmsteiny i totally agree with you

Yes, western buyers WILL be laughing.............laughing with JOY when they realize that chinese cars will be able to offer almost ALL of the performance, comfort AND reliability of their western counterparts - for a CONSIDERABLY lower price!
I think you stayed in China for too long and has lost your senses. I have seen this problem among people who returned from Japan, but never seen this from someone returning from China.

Yes, western buyers WILL be laughing.............laughing with JOY when they realize that chinese cars will be able to offer almost ALL of the performance, comfort AND reliability of their western counterparts - for a CONSIDERABLY lower price! :thumb: :lol: :nod:

Doubt it considering many American's still are cautious of the Chinese who come from the "Red State".

Please fellow members don't shout at each other or swear its not good etiquette IMO.

To agree with Real_I_Hate_China:

Yes Chinese will build good cars it will take time to be at world quality 2-4 yrs IMO, but at the moment there is alot of People against Chinese products due to job loss in other countries eg Europe for one with textiles.

So I don't think people will jump in Chinese cars for that reason also poor quality perception, I have a friend that could have bought the SVW Polo but didn't due to perception of quality.

The Chinese may/may not build good products it will take a while for Chinese to work Quality Conscience Europe, Freedom/Equality Nth. Americans, Indians, Former Tibetans and there supporters etc.

The Chinese Automakers & companies have long road to build up there reputations.

I for one hope China will over come all these problems, I hold no animosty towards China or its people.

Please fellow members don't shout at each other or swear its not good sportsmenship IMO.

To agree with Real_I_Hate_China:

Yes Chinese will build good cars it will take time to be at world quality 2-4 yrs IMO, but at the moment there is alot of People against Chinese products due to job loss in other countries eg Europe for one with textiles.

So I don't think people will jump in Chinese cars for that reason also poor quality perception, I have a friend that could have bought the SVW Polo but didn't due to perception of quality.

The Chinese may/may not build good products it will take a while for Chinese to work Quality Conscience Europe, Freedom/Equality Nth. Americans, Indians, Former Tibetans and there supporters etc.

The Chinese Automakers & companies have long road to build up there reputations.

I for one hope China will over come all these problems, I hold no animosty towards China or its people.


You are right, phaeton........and I crossed over a line as far as etiquette is concerned. You know, I don't have ANY problems with people disagreeing with me - eveyone is entitled to their own opinion. I DO agree with China hater on some things.............he IS a intelligent person that obviously does a lot of research on the internet. My problem is with HOW that information is delivered......let me give you an example. Someone could say to you "I think you might be incorrect" - or they COULD say to you "I think you are stupid and wrong". One is repsectful - and one is insulting. You would most likely react in a more professional manner if you heard the first statement, and you would react more defensively if you heard the second statement.

The same happens here on this forum - it's not so much WHAT the information is, but HOW it is being presented. For the record, I DO agree with you as far as what you are saying.........and thanks for reminding ALL of us to be more professional.;)

Cool, I'm glad we've realised that we need etiquette here.

BTW thanks for word etiquette, I forgot it, called it sportmenship lol

have edited original post.

(SAIC), the company most likely to succeed among Chinese venders doesn't think they would be ready to take on the world for another 8 years. And they are using British and Korean engineered cars, not Chinese engineered cars, to make the initial push.

Even though SAIC are using Korean and British engineered platforms as starting point they will/would be heavilly modified to meet EU Rules and Regulations.
So in a way the Chinese have modified these platforms enough to wear a Made/Engineered in China badge.

Its not like SAIC will just build on top of these platforms and hope for the best if they wish to be successful.

Even though SAIC are using Korean and British engineered platforms as starting point they will/would be heavilly modified to meet EU Rules and Regulations.
So in a way the Chinese have modified these platforms enough to wear a Made/Engineered in China badge.
??? Rover75 came from UK and Ssangyong has been selling its SUVs to EU market for ages. Of course both are already EU regulation compliant.

2. Chinese auto industry won't become a significant factor in developed markets for another 10 years.(That's 2016)


I think China would be happy with that. It would still represent a major achievement and would be considered a short time by industry standards for new entrants.

Wild thread guys - hater distilled off his key points into one thread and created a pretty concentrated debate.

??? Rover75 came from UK and Ssangyong has been selling its SUVs to EU market for ages. Of course both are already EU regulation compliant.

Ok but what about Crash ratings,Emissions etc SAIC will be working on those.

I think you stayed in China for too long and has lost your senses. I have seen this problem among people who returned from Japan, but never seen this from someone returning from China.

People keep falling for this loser's bait. The fact is that he is just a depressed, lonely boy who lives in his mom's basement and cannot get dates, that's why he spends his whole life bashing China. Not just Chinese autos, but he hates EVERYTHING that has to do with China and Chinese PERIOD.

Why? It's obvious, because he is Korean, and ALL OF KOREA'S CULTURE comes from China. So obviously there is a bit of a resentment that there is nothing original about the culture that he grew up in, and all of it was just a bad copy of China's culture. Therefore, this psychopath blames all of his life's problems on China.

If you just keep falling for his inflammatory baits, you will die of a heart attack because there is no end to this guy's stupidity, ignorance and stubbornness.

I share the view of a major consolidation in the Chinese auto industry and the survivors are likely to have financial backing of either the central or local governments (eg. Chery has the City of Wuhu). Face is paramount to the Chinese - they will do all it takes to keep the show going. So what you see is not always the truth of things.

The race to enter the United States will trip and one or two guys will fall face flat. Slow and steady wins the race (remember one of the principles of the Toyota Way?). The Chinese are too fast, too quick, too furious. It reminds me of the dotcom euphoria. There will be a day of reckoning. It just a matter of when and who.

Reading some of the postings here in this forum gives me an impression that the Chinese are a lot better and more savvy than the Japanese and Germans in building and engineering cars. Wow! I didn't know that, really.

Ok but what about Crash ratings,Emissions etc SAIC will be working on those.
The Rover 75 got a 4 star rating in the Euro NCAP testing. However SAIC needs to do some work on emission since the K-series is only EURO-III compliant.

However SAIC needs to do some work on emission since the K-series is only EURO-III compliant.
Which is a diffcult task.

Note that Lotus Elise, a car originally powered by Rover K-series, swapped the engine with a Toyota engine to make it to the US market.

Seems like a lot of people do not understand the core essentials of my arguement, so I put up this nice summary.

1. Chinese auto industry is not ready to hit developed markets as of today.
2. Chinese auto industry won't become a significant factor in developed markets for another 10 years. (That's 2016)

http://www.brophy.com/eodweb/GIF/designers/giugiaro.jpg
http://www.giugiarodesign.it/eng/e_index.html
http://www.designboom.com/eng/interview/giugiaro.html
http://www.autonews.com/files/euroauto/inductees/giugiaro.htm

I believe it was Giorgetto Giugiaro who said "It took Japan 40 years to become a great automotive nation. It took South Korea 20 years. I think it will take China as little as 10 to 15 years." To me it seems odd that you would say the Chinese auto industry won’t be a significant factor in developed markets for another 10 years. The companies that I would consider a significant factor are the three German brands Audi, BMW, and Mercedes, the three Japanese companies Honda, Nissan, and Toyota, and in the past the big three Detroit. So by saying that they will not be a significant factor for another 10 years you are actually saying that they will be a factor upon introduction before 2016, saying that they will have the same effect as second tier Japanese brands and the Korean brands.

I don't see too many non-Chinese on this board(Who cares about Chinese cars anyway). It is just me lone non-Chinese Vs an army of Chinese waging a war of words.

A forum is a place for the free exchange of thoughts, you cannot control who Posts, but because the forum is in English the ideas will be less biased than a Chinese forum like MyChery.net. Have you visited this thread by gr8, Admin cannot force everyone to post in a thread, but the results say something about the members. http://www.chinacarforums.com/forum/showthread.php?t=580

Wild thread guys - hater distilled off his key points into one thread and created a pretty concentrated debate.

Did we really have a debate over hater’s stance on the Chinese automotive industry? When you look back at the posts what really happens seems to be a debate over the true condition of the Chinese industry, unseen by the information network, and anger towards hater’s tone when his argument is based on what he finds on the internet.

Yes, western buyers WILL be laughing.............laughing with JOY when they realize that chinese cars will be able to offer almost ALL of the performance, comfort AND reliability of their western counterparts - for a CONSIDERABLY lower price! :thumb: :lol: :nod:

You definitely know something about the Chinese automotive industry that cannot be posted on the internet, or else you and fightingtorque would not have been so insistent on hater actually going to China. I guess I will find out in 2009. The Korean's are pretty much offering that in their vehicles, but in many cases people still view them as they where before. Both you and fightingtorque know this and neither one of you seem to be people who will have unrealistic expectations, so for someone to have even this much confidence in the product you must know more than you are letting on.

Which is a diffcult task.
Lucky for them, Powertrain had finished EUIV certification for some K-series variants and was working on all of the others.

You definately know something about the Chinese automotive industry that is not posted on the internet, or else you and fightingtorque would not have been so insistant on hater actually going to China. I guess I will find out in 2009.

You are 100% correct........now WHAT do you think it might be? Actually, it's pretty simple - you can READ about virtually anything and everything on the internet, and you can SEE pictures as well. But what is missing? The ACTUAL EXPEREINCE of being somewhere, touching something, smelling it, etc........I think you understand what I am trying to say here. The simple fact that fightingtorque and I are living in China gives us a MUCH different perspective vs. China hater's internet-based opinion. I am not going to argue the fact that chinese cars are not up to the quality of american, european or japanese cars - but I can ALSO say that the gap between them is narrowing very rapidly. Actually sitting in a Geely, or Chery, or Hafei, or any other chinese brand car is proof of that for me. Actually DRIVING most of the chinese cars is FURTHER proof of that as well. Fightingtorque can also attest to this as well - he OWNS a Chery (based on the posts I read here on this forum). When someone like China hater tries to tell all of us how bad chinese cars are, EVEN THOUGH he has NEVER even SEEN one with his own eyes (much less actually drive one).........that bothers me. He IS entitled to his opinion (as we all are), and he IS a highly educated person - but if he REALLY wants to speak with authority, then he SHOULD COME TO CHINA to see and drive these cars for himself! If that ever happens (and I doubt that it will), THEN I will be much more inclined to read his words. For me, I am MUCH more likely to listen to someone who has actually had experience with something (be it cars, electronics, etc...) vs. JUST internet research. Internet research IS valuable and can provide A LOT of information.......but it is the beginning of the process of knowing about something, not the end. Research COMBINED with hands on experience is the best combonation, and someone like fightingtorque (a Chery owner) already has that. Real experience, my friends - there is NO substitute for that. :)

But what is missing? The ACTUAL EXPEREINCE of being somewhere, touching something, smelling it, etc........I think you understand what I am trying to say here. The simple fact that fightingtorque and I are living in China gives us a MUCH different perspective vs. China hater's internet-based opinion.

lol i agree

I believe it was Giorgetto Giugiaro who said"It took Japan 40 years to become a great automotive nation. It took South Korea 20 years. I think it will take China as little as 10 to 15 years."
He is wrong.

Japan : Modern Japanese auto industry began in the late 40s, then became the world player by mid 70s, thanks to two oil shocks. That's a period of roughly 28 years.
Korea : Modern Korean auto industry began in the mid 70s, then became the world player by early 2000s. That's another period of 28 years.
China : Modern Chinese auto industry began in the mid 90s. By above calculations, Chinese still have 18 more years to go before they reach the global player level, selling cars that could go head to head with Japanese and Korean models.

There are many variables to take into consideration to that simplistic assumption. Times have changed, growth for many of these companies is heavily accelerated due to strong sales. If I remeber correctly Brilliance experienced over 100 percent growth in sales over the previous year, as did Chery. Did the Japanese or Korean companies ever experience such phenomenal growth in such a short amount of time? No I don't think so...

There are many variables to take into consideration to that simplistic assumption. Times have changed
And Chinese are going up against Japanese with a very high customer satisfaction, unlike Japanese who went up against Americans selling gas-guzzling junk cars. Customers have no reason to switch to Chinese.

growth for many of these companies is heavily accelerated due to strong sales.
Hyundai broke the new import model sales record, a record unlikely to be ever broken, with 1985 launch of Excel. Then it took Hyundai another 18 years to become a true global player.

Did the Japanese or Korean companies ever experience such phenomenal growth in such a short amount of time?
People were lined up to buy Toyotas during two oil shocks of 1970s. Chinese won't enjoy the record breaking sales that Toyota and Hyundai enjoyed back in the 70s and 80s.

I believe it was Giorgetto Giugiaro who said "It took Japan 40 years to become a great automotive nation. It took South Korea 20 years. I think it will take China as little as 10 to 15 years."

Of course he is wrong. I am not sure how old he is, but on the wall next to me is a picture of one of his designs, the Lotus Esprit, which came out in 1976. At that time there was no internet, no google etc. So Guigiaro didn't grow up in the modern age, doubtless he makes his comments based only on experience of working face to face with motor manufacturers and seeing the way the auto industry has grown and changed over several decades.

For sure his opinions can't be held in such high esteem as hater who uses the latest technology (internet, google, clusty etc) to tap such a vast wealth of knowledge and enables him to predict the future with such clinical accuracy.

Guigaro. I'm sure he's a complete fuel and we shouldn't take his comments seriously. Ha ha ha, Hater forever!

Of course he is wrong.
Of course.

Chinese auto industry of 2006 is comparable to Japanese auto industry of 1960, and Korean auto industry of 1983 in terms of product maturity in the world market.

The only difference is that Japanese and Korean markets were well-protected to buy enough time for their domestic makers, whereas Chinese auto market is overrun by foreigners and native Chinese auto industry is going through a rough consolidation, leaving just a handful of survivers from 160 or so auto companies.

Another difference is that Japanese and Korean automakers had to go overseas to survive, whereas Chinese automakers are enjoying a brisk business selling in their home markets, so the export is just an afterthought.

Most, if not all, Japanese and Korean auto plants are located by seaside, some with built-in ports, because these factories were geared for exports from the beginning.

On the other hand, most Chinese auto plants are built inland, since these Chinese auto plants were for domestic consumption only. Moving Cherys from Wuhu to a seaport alone would add $600 to the cost of a Chery export.

On the other hand, most Chinese auto plants are built inland, since these Chinese auto plants were for domestic consumption only. Moving Cherys from Wuhu to a seaport alone would add $600 to the cost of a Chery export.

Interested to know where you get the 600USD from. Based on my inland shipments of parts, I would guess that a car weighing 1.5 tonnes to ship the 500km from wuhu to shanghai would cost about 200USD. And a shipment of 10-12 cars is more weight than I move in one go so could be cheaper, although on the other hand more bulky.

Of course if you read it on internet then I'm sure it's true.

Based on my inland shipments of parts,
You transport cars on a car carrier. How much does it cost to run a car carrier from Wuhu to the nearest car loading dock and back???

come on people you cant compare china with japan and korea, just cause it took japan korea 40 or 28 whatever years to get into the auto industry it dosnt mean it would take china that long to do this. just think of it, 50 years ago china was the looser getting attacked by the japanese and europeans. now, in just 50 years the chinese rosed up as one of the top three most powerful countries in the world.
again, i dont know how many times i have to say this to get this into your mind mr hater. the shenzhou project, the japanese and europeans tryed many years to get man to space, but the rocket just falls back down. but china with a latter start is working to get 4 or even 8 men to space, while the japanese didnt even have their first man up yet.
times have changed, the most powerful countries are not fast enough to keep up with china's accelleration. china would catch up in no time, just like the fighter jets they build, there milliarty weapons, olympic medals, space technology etc etc etc.
and please this should be the last time i need to mention that CHINA CANT BE COMPARED WITH JAPAN AND KOREA.

You transport cars on a car carrier. How much does it cost to run a car carrier from Wuhu to the nearest car loading dock and back???

If I knew that I'd tell you. I could find out but I thought you'd be able to show us which internet site you found it out on.

Since we've seen in another post on this forum that they have either 10 or 12 cars per transporter, then according to your 600 USD per car it must cost 6000-7200 USD.

The parts analagy comes from the idea that a truck is something that uses fuel according to the work it does, which is going to bear a strong relationship to the weight it hauls (yes I know about air resistance, rolling resistance etc so don't start) and the capital cost and maintenance cost, which again are related to the load. Following that analagy I come up with about 200USD.

However, to get this right why don't you look up some chinese trucking companies on the internet and get some quotes? I would have thought you already did that, surely you didn't just pull 600 USD out your tailpipe and post it in with all your carefully researched data?

Japanes and Koreans all had their opportunities in their take-off run and if you put things in perspective Chinese today have their own advantages.

Many of cutting edge technologies these days are avaliable on the market for the new comers to buy which can significantly reduce the time it would otherwise have to spend on R&D on its own. So does your "rule of 28" still hold these days???

Chery, since its birth has proven itself that it can do a fairly good job integrating componets coming from 3 continents (NA, AS, EU) and when they ship a bunch of them to US with quality at least comparable to Korean cars but priced much lower, I bet they can significant under cut Koreans, the same way they under cut Japs back in 90s.

The fact is that only those with billions in the bank can afford to outspend and rise above competition. The car market in a developing country always repeats the same pattern. One company has slightly more cash than the others, so it outspends the competition to bring out better cars at cheaper price, driving out the competition in the process and becoming a monopoly. Much the same way GM once monopolized the US market in the 50s, ditto for Toyota and Hyundai too.

Chery is a bit uniqic when it comes to financing, you may have to do more research and get some education on this. Chery is a bybrid in its business nature, a goverment entity and a profit driven corporate at the same time. Being part of the Commi government means it can tap into its 1T (that is 1000 billion +) US dollar currency reserve. As recent as last week, it was awarded US $3000 for one of its development projects. Does any other car manufacture in the world enjoy the same government subsities like Chery? ON the surface it may look small but it has a financial backing of a country above and underneath the table. Now China is determined to make Chery export to US a sccess, it is certain they will be recieving more funds and allow them to price their cars at even lower price.

If one day US cries out for unfair trading the Commi government will most likely throw its weight behind negotiation table. At the end it will be a comprimise because US fears Boeing being thrown out of the country.

If you look at the bright side, the US comsumers will ripe all the rewards at the cost of Koreans (mostly) and Japanes. The people who are buying GM, FORD are the rednecks that will buy GM FORD even if they didn't have wheels.


Like it or, this is how it is going to play out.

3. There is a room for only two Chinese global players. One is SAIC. The other is expected to be FAW.


Think you can add Nanjing MG to that list. It sounds like they have secured 2 billion dollars of investment from the US and now have some Chinese banks bankrolling them. Unlike SAIC and FAW they also have a brand that appeals in Europe and the US.

I agree with your point that the Chinese currently have no engineering capability. ARUP is doing all Nanjings engineering and is busy setting up Longbridge as the main center for R&D.

In addition Ricardo is doing all the R&D for SAIC and have even recruited most of Rover's engineers. The Chinese will get there as they are turning out more engineers from Uni than any other country in the world...

Seems like a lot of people do not understand the core essentials of my arguement, so I put up this nice summary.

1. Chinese auto industry is not ready to hit developed markets as of today.
2. Chinese auto industry won't become a significant factor in developed markets for another 10 years.(That's 2016)
3. There is a room for only two Chinese global players. One is SAIC. The other is expected to be FAW.
4. Chery and Geely will hit a growth wall soon as they lack the capital necessary to become truely global players.
5. Chinese auto industry will go through a major consolidation, leaving only a handful of Chinese owned companies. The rest will perish.
6. Chinese auto export will not exceed 2 million/year maximum annually. Any more will cause a trade war with the US and EU.
7. Chinese auto market resembles the US(weak domestic producers and strong foreign producers. A large domestic market) more than Japan(strong domestic producers and weak foreign importers. A small domestic market).

Excellent points. :thumb:

And Chinese are going up against Japanese with a very high customer satisfaction, unlike Japanese who went up against Americans selling gas-guzzling junk cars. Customers have no reason to switch to Chinese.


Hyundai broke the new import model sales record, a record unlikely to be ever broken, with 1985 launch of Excel. Then it took Hyundai another 18 years to become a true global player.


People were lined up to buy Toyotas during two oil shocks of 1970s. Chinese won't enjoy the record breaking sales that Toyota and Hyundai enjoyed back in the 70s and 80s.

The point is very true. Japanese cars got a giant kick-start because they filled a niche that American cars hadn't addressed, fuel economy. Something especially important in the 1970's. I don't see there being any market niche for chinese cars.

I don't see a niche market, I see a mass market!! I hate to say it but with soaring oil prices and more importantly that ever, environmental concerns, a developing country like China has a huge advantage. Conditions are right in China; a supportive government, a growing affluent population who are concerned about the environment and probably most importantly a highly motivated/funded business community. In that you have a recipe that may just well create a world standard indigenous automotive industry within a few years and within as short a timescale again, a world leader in alternative fuel cell technology. Why not!

What you must consider, is that to change technology, especially entrenched technology such as the petrol/diesel car, you require infrastructure. Infrastructure is not owned by GM, Toyota, Renault or Honda. The Government ultimately decides! And the government can give the advantage to its own companies by pushing them in a certain direction. China is different to most countries in that its business make up has a large proportion of government people on the board of directors, even the private companies. As such, they are privileged to things that we in the West can only speculate about

I mourn the demise of the British car industry, but it was our own fault. It is not that the British are not capable, factories under Japanese ownership are some of the most productive in the world. However, an industry needs a strategy and support form the government. Britain has sadly lacked in this area. China on the other hand sees the automotive industry as a pillar of its economy and as such will push it. I am glad that China have taken what was left of the British car industry. I hope they succeed where we failed. I am also glad that they have their technical centres in the UK.

How far the middle kingdom has come, and how far it has to go. I for one have realised this and am studying Chinese. As an Engineer I see the exciting developments happening in China and I wish to be a part of it.:)

As for the China bashing on this thread, I say fair cop to it. You have to have both sides to any argument. Anyway, the rate that the Chinese Auto manufactures are going, it will not take long to show the doubters or prove us wrong!:confused:

P.S, If any of you are connected with the Chinese Automotive industry, it would be great to hear from you. Being so far away, it’s hard to gather information! I’m sure I need to be put straight on a few facts!:thumb:

:nono: I respect all the position of the people. But I love to live in a free world. I ask to this man, If you now how many time Chinas are doing parts to all the big companys cars in the world. They put big money in this companies to sale in high prices cars and they have more profit. Give to all the people more oportunited. I love my world, China are doing good :thumb:

I don't see a niche market, I see a mass market!! I hate to say it but with soaring oil prices and more importantly that ever, environmental concerns, a developing country like China has a huge advantage. Conditions are right in China; a supportive government, a growing affluent population who are concerned about the environment and probably most importantly a highly motivated/funded business community. In that you have a recipe that may just well create a world standard indigenous automotive industry within a few years and within as short a timescale again, a world leader in alternative fuel cell technology. Why not!

What you must consider, is that to change technology, especially entrenched technology such as the petrol/diesel car, you require infrastructure. Infrastructure is not owned by GM, Toyota, Renault or Honda. The Government ultimately decides! And the government can give the advantage to its own companies by pushing them in a certain direction. China is different to most countries in that its business make up has a large proportion of government people on the board of directors, even the private companies. As such, they are privileged to things that we in the West can only speculate about

I mourn the demise of the British car industry, but it was our own fault. It is not that the British are not capable, factories under Japanese ownership are some of the most productive in the world. However, an industry needs a strategy and support form the government. Britain has sadly lacked in this area. China on the other hand sees the automotive industry as a pillar of its economy and as such will push it. I am glad that China have taken what was left of the British car industry. I hope they succeed where we failed. I am also glad that they have their technical centres in the UK.

How far the middle kingdom has come, and how far it has to go. I for one have realised this and am studying Chinese. As an Engineer I see the exciting developments happening in China and I wish to be a part of it.:)

As for the China bashing on this thread, I say fair cop to it. You have to have both sides to any argument. Anyway, the rate that the Chinese Auto manufactures are going, it will not take long to show the doubters or prove us wrong!:confused:

P.S, If any of you are connected with the Chinese Automotive industry, it would be great to hear from you. Being so far away, it’s hard to gather information! I’m sure I need to be put straight on a few facts!:thumb:

some good points,
welcome to chinacarforums archedestral :)

China

What puzzles me is that since you hate China and Chinese cars - you sure spend a heck a lot of time doing research...

HELO Ihave already paid to buy A620 it looks beautiful i loved it.but can any one plz tell me if it has any engin probloms?? thx amillion.

yas...

Uh................Yasmie, this is the wrong thread to ask about specific things like engine problems for a particular model. For everyone else............this FORMER member of the forum (I Hate China, or as we used to call him.....IHC) has not been posting here for a long time (a couple of years now), and this thread is somewhat antiquated - accurate as his theories may have been. If we want to discuss this (and there are a lot of relevant issues we could discuss), how about we start a new thread, something like "2010 - where is the chinese car industry NOW?" I just prefer not to revisit a thread that contains a bunch of inflammatory and incendiary remarks. We can do better than that.......we can have a open exchange of ideas - positive or negative, it makes no difference - let's just do it in a adult and professional manner. So............who wants to start a new thread? I'll be glad to............mods, is this ok with you?:thumb:

Uh................Yasmie, this is the wrong thread to ask about specific things like engine problems for a particular model. For everyone else............this FORMER member of the forum (I Hate China, or as we used to call him.....IHC) has not been posting here for a long time (a couple of years now), and this thread is somewhat antiquated - accurate as his theories may have been. If we want to discuss this (and there are a lot of relevant issues we could discuss), how about we start a new thread, something like "2010 - where is the chinese car industry NOW?" I just prefer not to revisit a thread that contains a bunch of inflammatory and incendiary remarks. We can do better than that.......we can have a open exchange of ideas - positive or negative, it makes no difference - let's just do it in a adult and professional manner. So............who wants to start a new thread? I'll be glad to............mods, is this ok with you?:thumb:

You can start a new thread anytime. I'm sure others will jump in.

Start one, jmsteiny. I say this because I always look forward to reading your informative posts, and, I think you would be a good person to kick the new thread off properly. You know, with the questions and points you're thinking right now about the Chinese auto industry's state in 2010.

Yas, why would you pay to buy a car BEFORE finding out if it has engine problems? Makes as much sense as buying a plane ticket without knowing what airport you are supposed to land at.

Speaking as someone who is sat here trying to fathom the KLM random aviation company, this made me laugh!