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2010 - where is the chinese car industry NOW?

14K views 30 replies 16 participants last post by  dragin 
#1 ·
OK gents (and ladies, don't want to be sexist here), you asked..........so here it is. A NEW thread discussing the general state of the chinese car industry now, and where it could be in the next 3-5 years. The previous thread (started by good ol' RIHC a few years ago) had some great info - but was also somewhat incendiary as far as the comments flying back and forth. Let's try and avoid that, shall we? I'll start with a few big questions, and we'll let it fly from there ok?

1) - Where is the industry NOW? Compared to say........2-3 years ago, how has the industry improved? Has it gotten worse in any way? How has market share changed in the last 2-3 years? Which company is standing tall now - and which is faltering?

2) - Where is the industry going to be in 5 years? We all know that the big goal for the chinese car industry is to finally get their "foot in the door" in any (or all) of the "big 3" markets - America, Europe and Japan. In 2008, several of the companies were speaking with much confidence about having their cars in America by 2010.........well, 2010 is less than 2 months away, and I don't see any signs that ANY chinese car will be on sale in America next year. So......how close IS the chinese car industry to REALLY breaking in to one of the "big 3" markets? Which companies might we see growing and prospering - and which companies are destined for failure (or being bought out by a bigger company)? Which company might be the FIRST to really sell their products in America/Europe/Japan? We know that Brilliance is trying to sell in Germany, but it is very limited at this point.

3) Can the chinese car industry REALLY become a world player? Are there any products right now (from any company) that can be considered "world" competitive? Any predictions on HOW the chinese can accomplish this? Personally, I see the alternative energy market (hybrid/electric/hydrogen technology) as the chinese industry's best chance to make their mark - the products being designed and developed in China are MUCH more significant than what we are seeing from America at this time. Japan is doing some interesting things, but I still see China as being the leader right now. The question here for me is - how close are the chinese companies to getting beyond the prototype stage, and actually getting some of these great ideas onto the market and available for the consumer?

I think this is a good start - so let's see what y'all think!!:thumb:
 
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#28 ·
.....adopting the widespread use of BLDC hub motors that can offer regeneration right in the wheel without the need for A/C conversion expenses. With the complete drive train located right inside the wheels, space previously used for the transmission, differential and drive shafts can now be used to both house battery packs and increase passenger space/decrease weight and design excesses....
The challenge here Dr. Al is managing the increased unsprung weight. If these hubs are too heavy then handling will suffer, i.e. once the rubber leaves the road forget about trying to steer the car. Oh yeah making them of light weight materials will take care of that but at what cost.....
 
#29 ·
The Chinese car manufacturers which could become global players in my opinion:

- Chery
- Geely
- BYD
- Great Wall
- ChangAn/Landwind
- Jianghuai (hopefully they'll use the full name instead of JAC, because of the Dutch meaning of "jakkes" [1) Bastard Curse 2) Interjection 3) Interjection of disgust 4) Exclamation of disgust])
- SAIC brands MG/Roewe

(Less likely) possibilities: Lifan, Brilliance, FAW [Xiali/Hongqi-Besturn], Hafei, Haima, Changfeng, Huatai, GAIC (GAEI)
 
#30 ·
It's difficult to say! I haven't really kept up with the China car industry. Honestly, I kind of assumed that all car manufacturers were slumping due to the worldly recession. However, I don't know too much about China's economy and their general profit -- the U.S. DOES owe China a significant amount of moola. Oy...talk about a major hard money loan. o_____o
 
#31 ·
daewoo-chevrolet said:
..... Jianghuai (hopefully they'll use the full name instead of JAC, because of the Dutch meaning of "jakkes" [1) Bastard Curse 2) Interjection 3) Interjection of disgust 4) Exclamation of disgust])
DC I agree with your prediction but would say that FAW should not be counted out, in view of its shear size and wealth. As you know it did have plans for a foray into North America via Mexico but the recent economic slump seemed to put a damper on that try, at least for now.

As for the name "JAC", although it is not a good fit for Europe, in the U.S. I think it could work. It's very brief, easy to remember, and strong sounding. I think most people would associate it with the nickname for John, or with sayings like Jack of all trades, Jack and Jill, etc..

I would just add that I don't think Jianghuai would fit in either Europe or the U.S.. Like Qirui chose Chery and Jili chose Geely, Jianghuai needs some global savy marketing folks to find a suitable name.
 
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