China Car Forums banner

2010 - where is the chinese car industry NOW?

14K views 30 replies 16 participants last post by  dragin 
#1 ·
OK gents (and ladies, don't want to be sexist here), you asked..........so here it is. A NEW thread discussing the general state of the chinese car industry now, and where it could be in the next 3-5 years. The previous thread (started by good ol' RIHC a few years ago) had some great info - but was also somewhat incendiary as far as the comments flying back and forth. Let's try and avoid that, shall we? I'll start with a few big questions, and we'll let it fly from there ok?

1) - Where is the industry NOW? Compared to say........2-3 years ago, how has the industry improved? Has it gotten worse in any way? How has market share changed in the last 2-3 years? Which company is standing tall now - and which is faltering?

2) - Where is the industry going to be in 5 years? We all know that the big goal for the chinese car industry is to finally get their "foot in the door" in any (or all) of the "big 3" markets - America, Europe and Japan. In 2008, several of the companies were speaking with much confidence about having their cars in America by 2010.........well, 2010 is less than 2 months away, and I don't see any signs that ANY chinese car will be on sale in America next year. So......how close IS the chinese car industry to REALLY breaking in to one of the "big 3" markets? Which companies might we see growing and prospering - and which companies are destined for failure (or being bought out by a bigger company)? Which company might be the FIRST to really sell their products in America/Europe/Japan? We know that Brilliance is trying to sell in Germany, but it is very limited at this point.

3) Can the chinese car industry REALLY become a world player? Are there any products right now (from any company) that can be considered "world" competitive? Any predictions on HOW the chinese can accomplish this? Personally, I see the alternative energy market (hybrid/electric/hydrogen technology) as the chinese industry's best chance to make their mark - the products being designed and developed in China are MUCH more significant than what we are seeing from America at this time. Japan is doing some interesting things, but I still see China as being the leader right now. The question here for me is - how close are the chinese companies to getting beyond the prototype stage, and actually getting some of these great ideas onto the market and available for the consumer?

I think this is a good start - so let's see what y'all think!!:thumb:
 
See less See more
#4 · (Edited)
There a lot of improvement in this year Chinese car model design. I hope Chinese car company can do the same thing in 3-5 years later. Not only in design but also in the quality and technology too.

If Chinese car company can keep maintain their progress speed. 10 years later, people around the world will consider to buy China car.

For now Chinese car company need work harder, learn much and do a lot of research for everything.

It's different between progress under government support and progress in the real global market. Under government support, Chinese car can have a huge progress, but the real progress to transform Chinese car into world class car is in the real global market competition.
 
#6 ·
Ahead of where it was just a few years ago, and likely to forge ahead more in the coming years.

Great Wall is successfully exporting the Sailor (SA220), Wingle (V240) and Hover (X240) to Australia, which is a discerning market not focussed purely on low cost.

I expect 2010/11 to be good years for some Chinese manufactuers, although industry consolidation (market withdrawal and mergers/takeovers) will invariably occur.
 
#9 ·
ASR Sport said:
Is there any Chinese car industry at all?? I did not noticed, did passed by me proly while i was sleeping. ^_^

Ohhh... you mean copy industry??
Forget the millions of SUV's; there is a car industry. Theres a few original companies like Polarsun, Anchi, Pride (Assuming they really exist, Martin isnt answering), and a few others. Are there a lot of copy's? Of course there are. But no more than there are all over the world.

Im only surprised many of the good companies like Soyat, Jiangnan, Hafei, and others that COULD have been big players folded. Its rather depressing really. Im still interested to know what happened with the Soyat materials or the Yunque line. I would buy it if I knew, for a local production. but ehh
 
#11 ·
alby13 said:
we can be as optimistic as we want about it, but i think that everyone thought the Chinese Car Industry was going to more far along than it is to date.

Yes, I actually just saw my first Chinese car ever in person! :) They're test driving them around here in California and all over the country, a DADI motors car.

I know it's going to take a lot of effort for the Chinese to prove their cars for the American market, many people see them as SUPER cheap, too much plastic and unsafe. (Not my views but forwarding what I hear)
 
#12 ·
JordaanDMC-12 said:
Yes, I actually just saw my first Chinese car ever in person! :) They're test driving them around here in California and all over the country, a DADI motors car.

I know it's going to take a lot of effort for the Chinese to prove their cars for the American market, many people see them as SUPER cheap, too much plastic and unsafe. (Not my views but forwarding what I hear)
Jordaan, I'd like to hear more about this - Dadi is a real small time player here in China, and I'd like to know how they are test driving their vehicles in America before any of the big players are! :eek: Dadi is also not the best example of where the chinese auto industry REALLY is right now, and it's a shame that american consumers might develop their first opinions of the chinese auto industry based on Dadi products! IF only the american consumer could see something more like the Chery A3 5 door, or the Brilliance FRV/FSV, or even the Roewe 550/750 - cars like that would have consumers asking "This is really made in CHINA?? Amazing..."

Alby - I think your evaluation of the industry is pretty much on the money right now! 2-3 years ago, we were all seeing the industry explode with new cars and new showrooms - the world economy was still robust and China had it's eyes on the american market......2010 looked like a tangible goal at that time. Because of the world economic situation, my opinion is that China's auto industry development has been more vertical than horizontal - in other words, the market has matured domestically with company consolidations, more mature model and brand lines being developed, better quality control and a higher level of standard features on all cars (air bags and ABS are standard now with almost all cars built in China, with the exception of the bare basic sub-compacts).......all preparation for horizontal development - in other words, the forward expansion of the international market.

2010 has started off pretty well for the chinese auto industry, with the big news (IMO) being acquisition of foreign companies/technology. Geely buying Volvo, BAC getting most of the Saab technology, even Changan building a licensed version of the previous generation Ford Focus 5 door. Geely is ESPECIALLY big news, because of the ownership of a established international dealer network now.......a HUGE advantage for a chinese auto company wanting to break into the international market. I'm also going to stick with my prediction that the first chinese built cars actually sold in America will be a AMERICAN BRAND. HOW is this possible? Simple - it's quite possible that when GM starts to sell the new Chevy Spark in 2011 in America (the Beat concept car), it will be built in China and exported to America. I ALSO think that cars like the electric Geely Panda, the BYD E6 or maybe even the Brilliance EV are early favorites to reach American shores - why? Less regulations to have to deal with - no emissions testing to worry about!:lol: China's been pushing hard with hybrid/electric technology, and this COULD be a great way to "warm the hearts" of the American consumer to the thought of a chinese car in their garage. Beyond that, it's probably going to be 2012/2013 before chinese cars start to show up in bigger numbers........the economy still needs more time to bounce back AND most chinese cars still need another 1-2 years to be built to american crash test and emissions standards.......not to mention getting a dealer network in place to actually SELL the cars that ARE ready to be exported to America! :cool:
 
#13 ·
Yes JM, I too find it curious that little Dadi has made it to California. That old light truck technology will be a hard sell there in a state where the automotive buying public is quite sophisticated. But there are already other Chinese made vehicles on the streets of that sunny state, namely Coda, Zap, DYMAC, and Wheego, if those can be counted.

And what surprises will 2010 bring in the way of more recognized Chinese products making it to U.S. shores? You are right GM might try to plug a model into the market from somewhere like the very successful SGM-Wuling operation. But even more likely would be the Panda Nanoq EV finding its way into Volvo showrooms since many of those dealers are hungry to find attention grabbers to put on the showroom floor.

And then there are BYD's claims to enter the California market as there first splash. But again the Californians are so savy that putting a completely unproven model like the e6 in their hands may be folly. Even Toyota had to learn the hard way when its Crown tumbled like humpty dumpty back in 1958.

Getting the transmission of power to the wheels smoothly and seamlessly on the EVs and HEVs is going to be quite a challenge for Chinese companies. That acheivement is an absolute must.

I thought Brilliance might make a go of entering the U.S. market following its entry to Europe but now I'm sceptical about its chances. Maybe under Yang Rong it may have happened but now Brilliance is even struggling in China.
 
#14 ·
I hope I'm telling you all the right brand that the car was, it has the same emblem as the DADI motors one so I'm assuming it's a DADI motor car? Anyway I want to post pictures of it but I need a few more posts so I'll try and get 10 tonight so I can show you what I saw, I actually came on here to ask what it was!

At first I thought it might have been an Opel or a Renault because I'm not that far from the Mexican border and we get on occasion European car brands not seen here in the United States but are sold in Mexico. But I saw the Chinese script on the trunk door and asked the man driving it about it. The car has Michigan "Manufacture" plates and I was told by him, that they are coming in through Michigan and being distributed throughout the country for certain road and durability tests, he was doing freeway and highway testing. I asked him what he though of it and he didn't seem as though he liked it too much and told me it was "alright". I'll try and get more posts so I can post a picture of it for you all!
 
#15 ·
Dragin, you make a great point about the electric Panda - I just don't know if Geely is ready to "rock the boat" so much in regards to the Volvo deal. There is a LOT of scrutiny facing Geely right now as to HOW they plan to use Volvo.....leave it alone for awhile? Start raiding the technology cupboards now rather than later? I think it would be a elegant and convenient solution to get customers into the Volvo showrooms, but will Geely get slammed for moving too fast? The E6 is a cool car and COULD be a success - but I don't know if BYD can survive just trying to sell ONE model and nothing else in the showroom. Even Hyundai started off in 1986 with a 3 door and 5 door Excel AND a sport version of the Excel......BYD doesn't really have anything else they can bring to the USA because the rest of their model lineup are clones of other companies vehicles! Brilliance is sooooooooo close to being ready - a good model lineup, no clones and respected for their more "patient" approach.....but financially they aren't capable of doing it right now. The other companies that you mentioned that are already in the USA? Tiny players and I don't really count them in at this point - and probably all of the cars from those companies come to the USA as CKD kits (a different ballgame compared to importing a completely assembled vehicle).

Jordaan......the reaction of the man you asked who was driving the Dadi? THAT is the reaction I was afraid of.........and very damaging for the already fragile image of the chinese car industry in the USA. It would still be great to see some pics though.........so post some when you get the chance!:thumb:

One other thought has entered my mind here.........and potentially this is a big thought - the role of the central government in all of this. Up until now, China's export industry (the holy grail of their economic growth) has made it's mark in the world focusing on more "low tech", less complex products (clothing, toys, home accessories, basic electronics, etc.) - and not too much intervention is needed with those things, other than to help ensure that the products being manufactured pass the laws/regulations of the countries they are being exported to. Most countries in the world have given up on manufacturing these types of products, accepting the fact that it's easier (and cheaper) to import them than to try and make them. Now, automobiles? Another story entirely. The american car (and car industry) has helped to define America's image in the world - cars like the Mustang, Camaro, most any model of Cadillac.....they are just as an indelible image of America as is Porsche/Volkswagen/BMW is for Germany, Ferrari is for Italy and Jaguar/Aston Martin is for England (same goes for Honda/Toyota/Nissan representing Japan). So now China wants to step up to the plate and take a swing at the world market.........but as of now the image of the chinese auto industry isn't very strong. I have no doubts at all that the government is well aware of this - so what will they do about it? Presenting a strong "face" to the world is HUGELY important for China's self-image, and having automobiles capable of playing in the world market is one of the biggest faces you can put out there. They're already doing it to some degree......heavily encouraging (I'm being PC here) smaller companies to liquidate or consolidate with larger companies, and helping to decide which companies are capable of handling the purchase of foreign companies/technology (it took several months before the government finally approved the Geely deal with Volvo). I'm sure the government has other ideas in mind as well.........what else might (or should) they do?
 
#16 · (Edited)
In my honest opinion the Chinese car industry has no doubt being given a kick start with substantial government support. It has extremely good potential especially within the domestic market where middle income earners are looking for a cheap bargain.

However there are certain dilemas within the Chinese auto industry that need to be overcome if Chinese car makers are serious about entering into international markets. One is the rampant culture of stealing of intellectual property from other competitors within the industry. You only need to look at most of the Chinese auto car makers line ups in various car shows to only see beyond doubt copies of popular car models from other leading brands. For example the Geely GE copy of the famous Rolls Royce, Great Wall motors copy of the Toyota Yaris. One glance at Dadi’s website and we see an all too familiar icon a copied Toyota SUV Prado paraded on our screens, the list of copies are endless. One could wonder whether this continued practice could have serious implications in the way other countries view the Chinese auto industry and if at all if its possible to sell the half copies or the down right blatant rip offs in other foreign markets particularly Europe, US, India and other Western countries where intentional or near copys of intellectual property is taken seriously.

Another serious issue to be looked at is build quality and safety. The Brilliance attempts of entering the European market with its BS6 were crushed when crash tests revealed the true quality of the build and safety. It scored just a half a star out of five stars for frontal and side impact tests. Staff at the Euro NCAP facility weren’t too impressed either prompting one to say “Very bad results for a new car. Safety is the same as twenty or thirty year old European cars”. The Geely Otaka and Jianglings Landwind seemed to follow suit with very poor safety ratings. The steering column of the Landwind for example can be seen to be thrusted towards the dummy and upwards the whole cabin just seems to collapse. One comments from readers and watchers on youtube “Would be more appropriate for a shotgun cartridge to fire instead of an airbag, so as to reduce the suffering of the would be occupants”. Consistency on the quality is also another issue plaguing the Chinese auto industry. Within the Chinese domestic market some 368 problems were detected per 100 vehicles sold according to written article by Li Lubo of the Business weekly most international brands stand at 124. This does not mean China has not improved. Automakers have gone from on average 800 problems detected close to the 300 mark per hundred vehicles sold. Within the next decade we may see this number closing in on Western counter parts.

Perhaps the biggest hurdle of all is Chinese Entrepreneur skills. Most Chinese ventures in foreign markets are heavily reliant on state backing. However entrepreneur skills would without doubt improve as more and more Chinese become proficient in English who some analysts say is essential when dealing with other foreign markets and to try understand the risks involve.

In a decade or more we may see more higher end products rolling out from China and into our showrooms.
 
#18 ·
Re: 2010 - where is the chinese EV car industry NOW?

*Please note that these comments only apply to the (emerging) EV Market Segment, not gasoline, diesel or even LP gas models.

If I were to give this, "Where is the Chinese EV Car Industry now" question a news article title, it would read: Slow EV Boat From China is lost at Sea and May Never Reach The North American Market! Though I know a great deal about European and Japanese buyer demands and preferences, I'll limit my comments to my home North American Market (U.S./Canada)experiences and expert knowledge. In order to put the emerging world EV Market into perspective, I'd first like to go back and touch on my own personal involvement with American Honda's launching of The "Acura" Brand in 1986. As a young man who ran out of money to complete college (I have since earned a Doctorate),for several years in the early 1980s, I kept hearing middle-class Americans talk about switching from luxury brands like Cadillac, Mercedes, BMW, Lincoln, etc...to Honda's Accord. Their buyer reasoning was fairly simple- The Honda Accord has nice interior comfort and features like PW, PDL, tilt, cruise, A/C... (just like my old luxury car), get's great gas mileage and it even rides very well for a smaller car, but most importantly, it doesn't break down or have "Planned Obsolescence" flaws built into its' design. Therefore, they have held their value and are, in short, the best car value for the dollar!
Well, to make a long story short, Honda understood this market trend in the early 1980s and answered with The Acura Brand that not only offered an upscale Accord version, The Legend Model, but also went on launch the smaller Integra Model series and many other successful brand models. In the early days, during my involvement as the L.A. Basin (largest car market on Earth) "1990 Acura Walkaround Champion" features and benefits specialist, these cars ranked at the very top of safety, initial quality, comfort and resale value. Honda's success with The Acura Brand, spurred Toyota to offer Lexus and Nissan the Infiniti Brands, and well the rest is all a well documented story of tremendous corporate profits for the Japanese.
I returned to college and answered my calling for teaching (which I had already experienced as a very successful sales trainer) but continued to stay involved in the automobile industry by buying and selling muscle and sports cars (because this is the only market segment that consistently appreciates over time) and illustrating my own designs as a hobby (a carryover from my early art school training). While in college, I often thought about how Honda's little early 1970s CiViC became The Acura Legend in time. After all, during the 1970s, everyone said, "The Japanese only copy American designs" and "They don't have any imagination like GM" "GM had Harley Earl's great designs in the 1950s, rotary engine 4wd concept cars in the 1960s and the Trans-Am Pontiac excitement through the 1970s-so the Japanese car makers just don't stand a chance" they said! Well, "they" were wrong and Chrysler's boxy rust bucket designs were so bad (in spite of successes like the K-car and mini-van) as a company, they went bankrupt! Ford and GM, mostly because of their successful pick up trucks, survived this 1980s American car maker meltdown but continued to loose greater and greater market share to The Japanese that had figured out how to package smaller cars that would ride, drive and have the amenities of larger models.
For the past 20 years, though American car companies built better small cars, they still have lost huge market share to the Japanese (as Toyota, not GM is now the world's largest automaker). Instead, by lulling the American public into a false sense of security (regarding volitile oil prices controlled by greedy corporations) the American companies continued doing what they have always done best and turned pick ups into large SUVs that had big profit margins (mostly in expensive parts and repairs) that kept them afloat, until now...
Now that oil bubble burst (with $4 a gallon U.S. gas prices and much higher around the world), on the one hand, GM and Chrysler took huge taxpayer bailouts and are mostly investing even more government dollars into their pick up trucks with so called, "clean diesel technology" (making this U.S. taxpayer angry as Hell that they are making the same old mistakes). However, on the other hand, Ford, Gm and even Chrysler with their Fiat offering are now about to nail the door shut on The emerging Chinese EV car industry once and for all by offering a glut of new sub compact fuel efficient ICE designs with better mileage, interiors and more youth buyer toys. With the global economy in the toilet- everyone is downsizing into this market segment to survive. Game over!
For those of you that have read my previous entries since 2007, you know that this upsets me as much as it does your own Chinese car industry entries. Why? Because China is the world's last best hope of overcoming the global oil based economy (since it has no real oil reserves and a huge emerging manufacturing based world economy). Let's talk realities from here on:
1. Likely, the U.S. automakers are, and will always be, the kings of full-sized ICE pick ups and SUVs; we invented and perfected the behemoth. Government money put into this segment insures this will continue. To compete here is corporate suicide. 10 years from now, EVs may challenge here.
2. The Japanese have perfected what once was called the compact car, but now is referred to as the mid-sized ICE sedan; the Accord and Camry are going to dominate this segment until (if it ever does) EV technology grows up a little more. In two to five years, EVs may challenge here.
3. The burgeoning and fastest growing world market segment (even in the big three markets) is the sub-compact mini car market. THE CHINESE MANUFACTURERS COULD COMPETE HERE RIGHT NOW IF THEY LISTEN TO WHAT THEY BUYERS/POTENTIAL IMPORTERS ARE SAYING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(a) Buyers don't want cheaply made underpowered copies of Honda, Toyota, Cooper and Chevy mini cars in an EV package priced at or above the ICE version!
(b) Buyers do want unique EV designs that compete head to head with similarly sized sub-compacts: If the ICE model offers A/C, Pw,PDL, cruise, tilt and a 120-140KW drive train with front wheel drive-OFFER IT!
(c) Buyers are willing to accept range restrictions of 120-150 miles per charge, only if they get everything else the ICE offers at the same price!

The historical North American Car Market lessons are clear, the opening is clearly defined, but based on my own experiences in trying to find an existing Chinese EV maker to partner with my company- no one at the big manufacturing companies want to look realistically at the mistakes they've made in offering cheaply made underpowered copies of previous/current ICE designs into an EV package. Furthermore, what a huge waste of billions of dollars the Chinese government is spending to subsidize hundreds of companies that simply don't offer competitive products for the big three EV- not ICE markets! Please listen Beijing- you can't compete with existing, well-established ICE manufacturers and to do so keeps killing the planet and your own economic growth! You don't have any oil, so why bother perpetuating this power structure that makes the world citizens slaves to oil companies while our planet is experiencing devastating climate change? The bottom line is that I would be remiss not to point out the clear solution here is to go all out in getting competitive EVs into the big three world markets right now! Skip the heavy rust prone stamped steel parts- switch to lightweight fiberglass car that can be effectively powered by your existing electric hub motors (your technology is already here in the electric scooter market). By eliminating heavy metal parts, transmissions, differentials, etc...and going with light weight super efficient motors right in the wheels, manufacturers can competitively offer excellent sub-compact EVs with lithium batteries, A/C, PW,PDL, and nicely appointed interiors, etc...to compete in this segment today! If you don't you'll be closing almost all of your car factories very soon!
THINK SOLAR GO GREEN
Sincerely,
Dr. Alberts
 
#19 ·
Dr. Al, just a great, great posting - thanks. Have patience - China's EV's are coming soon! Within 2 years, I think you'll see at least the BYD E6 and Geely's electric Panda on american soil, and possibly the Brilliance EV as well (this is still in concept stage, but it looks close to production ready if you ask me). You're right about China having a great opportunity here to take the world lead with hybrid/EV/hydrogen technology, I hope they don't squander the chance. China also has a bunch of micro/sub-compact cars that could do well on american roads (larger than Japan's kei cars but smaller than anything in the USA right now with the exception of the Smart car), but those damned annoying american crash test standards keep getting in the way!:lol: The first big step has finally been taken with Geely now owning Volvo (and it's established dealer network), and opens the door for Geely to sell the electric Panda (or anything else they want to sell for that matter) in the USA once crash tests are passed - emissions testing is irrelevant for this car! The GOOD news is that the Panda already received a 4 star rating for crash tests in China.....passing the american crash tests shouldn't be that hard at this point. I think China's investment in hybrid and alternative energy technologies is about to pay off in the next 2-3 years - I think we'll see a whole slew of new models available from almost all of the major manufacturers. At that point, the best of them could be exported to the USA or anywhere else...........besides, at this time what does any american manufacturer have ready to sell on the market, with the exception of the Chevy Volt (and the Volt is a hybrid)?? I don't see ANY pure electric models coming from any american manufacturer for at least 5 years, if not longer - so I'd say chinese car companies have about 5 years to get themselves established with electric/hybrid cars in America (or even some kick butt little sub-compacts with amazing gas mileage). If we follow your theoretical model as far as sub-compacts being the hot new market trend for the future, which cars could potentially represent China? A few possibilities:

1) - Geely Panda
2) - JAC A0 (no, it is NOT a Aygo clone....similar but no clone)
3) - Changan CV5 (the Ben Ben Mini)
4) - New Chevy Spark (the Beat concept, it will be made in China)
5) - Chery A1

I chose these specific cars for several reasons - first, they are legally "safe" (in other words no copyright infringements to worry about), they all have small engines under 1.3l (the Geely offers both 1.0 and 1.3l engines with the Panda) with the exception of the A1. I chose the A1 because Chery has developed a hybrid version of it (WHY they don't sell it yet I don't know)...and it gets 60+ miles per gallon - think american consumers might be interested in that? The Spark is the great anomaly of the bunch........this is my personal pick to the be FIRST "made in China" car to be sold in America - as a AMERICAN branded car (you have the love the irony in this!!).

Dr. Al, one correction of your facts...........the Acura Legend was not a luxury version of the Accord. The Legend was designed in 1985 to be Honda's flagship luxury model, sold under the Acura badge in America but known as the Honda Legend in Japan and other parts of the world. There was a 2 door and 4 door version, it was a GREAT car. I was the proud owner of a 1988 Acura Integra LS (5 door version) for many years (270,000 miles on the odo before I sold it), without a doubt the one of the best cars I've ever owned in my life.
 
#20 ·
I love the optomism of your response:lol: , but just to clarify- I said the Acura Legend was designed as an upscale version of the Honda Accord (for the new market niche Honda had discovered):nod: I was involved in launching the Acura Brand from 1986-1990 as a sales trainer. I had an exceptional feaure and benefit presentation which earned me the 1990 L.A. Basin (THE LARGEST CAR MARKET ON EARTH) Acura "Walkaround Competition" Award. In a twist of fate, I was offered a very high ranking position with America Honda (out of Long Beach, CA) but they rescinded the offer after realizing that I hadn't completed my college degree. Ironically, I went back to school and went on to earn not only the BA, but MA and Ph.D. as well. However, I never returned officially to the car business until 2007 when I designed and began promoting my 4wd solar electric coupe, The "Wasp".
I'm clarifying all of these points because I know key auto executives read this blog. I'm letting them know that my artistic, marketing, sales and training experiences are very transferable to launching a quality EV brand (just as I helped to do with Acura). Moreover, I'm blatently saying (since I've recently worked with a major Japanese R & D firm also) that Chinese automakers are way off track by:
1. Trying to compete with well-established ICE manufacturers because they all have decades and some nearly a century of ICE building experience, established global suppliers and tie- ins to major oil companies. By jumping in too late, in a game that you can't win, you're blowing valuable resources and time needed to slow down climate change! What I see is China trying to catch up on ICE technology and putting EVs on the back burner. By the time China catches up, it will be broke and forced to knuckle under to the likes of GM (that has no real intention of ever building pure EVs).
2. The EVs that are offered are cheap copies of old ICE designs. They are made like ICE cars and are therefore way to heavy to readily adapt great new affordable technology like wheel hub motors (which are common on Chinese made electric bikes/motor scooters). The LSVs that are offered can not be shipped because of patent infringements. The few that don't copy other existing designs are underpowered and un-safe for highway use in North America!
3. Not taking advantage of the global trend toward Green electric subcompacts right now. Make them just as powerful, safe and offer the same amenities (like A/C, PW,PDL...) and you'll win. Wait and the big companies will drive ICE subcompacts so low-you'll be finished.
The footnote to this ICE vs. electric debate is that China is shooting off its' foot, hand, ear and elbow since inexpensive solar cells and plastics (well-developed industries there that naturally compliment EVs) are loosing too. Steel, iron and aluminum can still be used for some car parts and building materials, but China's greatest bang for the buck exists by combining the best of its' existing resources and offering the world an alternative to ICE pollution! Personally, and speaking for many green enthusiasts, my next new car will be an EV- or I'll keep fixing my old ICE car and truck. I'm not buying another gas powered car!
 
#21 ·
Dr. Al, it is obvious that you have some real significant experience in the auto industry, and it's great to have you commenting on the forum - I know I'm learning things and I'm sure other people are too. Question for you - do you have any idea WHAT new ICE sub-compacts the american companies are developing right now? I know about the Chevy Beat (it will be the 2nd generation Spark), but beyond that.........what else? Chrysler is hooked up with Fiat now, so I assume America will see the Fiat 500 soon (which is great, it's a cool little car). Beyond that, I don't know about anything else. Maybe the Ford Ka? I REALLY think that american manufacturers have shown little social responsibility by literally refusing to sell sub-compacts in America....I know, I know - razor-thin profit margins for those cars. However, here is the ultimate sad fact - the smallest car right now that is sold by a american manufacturer is the Chevy Aveo, and the engine size is 1.6l. That is the SMALLEST car available with a american brand name on it????? Absolutely disgusting that the american consumer doesn't even have a CHOICE when it comes to american made small cars, and it's really no surprise they (Ford/Chrysler/GM) are have so many major problems right now. It's no wonder that the japanese/korean manufacturers have stepped in to fill that void so well, but even they have gotten oversized and bloated. Anyone want to guess now how many cars are available now in America with a engine size below 1.5l - from ANY manufacturer (foreign or domestic)? The answer..........ONE - the Smart Car. Honda Fit? Hyundai Accent? Toyota Yaris? Nissan Versa? All 1.5l engines and above - american consumers don't get the smaller engine choices we get in China (like the 1.3l Fit, the 1.4l Accent or the 1.2l Yaris). WHY???? A 1.3l engine can handle highway speeds just fine and has plenty of power for the city (so does a 1.0l for that matter if you're not worried about being a speed demon)....what this REALLY comes down to is the american cultural and sociological attitude of "biggest, fastest, highest, loudest, etc...". Most americans are so used to "keeping up with the joneses" that they're never happy with all the things and comforts they ALREADY HAVE. Who wants to choose the option of a smaller engine when they can afford the bigger one? THAT is the central issue, and until the american culture gets used to downsizing and conserving (or gas reaches $6-7.00 a gallon, which will happen before americans downsize much), tiny ICE sub-compacts will have a tough hill to climb in regards to american sales.

WITH all of this in mind, I still think that chinese manufacturers could still be successful with ICE sub-compacts - but how?? Simple - start modest, and use Honda as a example. In 1971, Honda started it's auto legacy in America with all of ONE car to sell - the Honda 600. They didn't try to sell nationwide at first, they just focused on the major urban areas (NYC, Los Angeles, the Bay Area) on the coasts - places where a small, nimble little car would fit in well. It didn't sell all that well, but Honda stuck with it and introduced the Civic in 1973 - a little bigger engine and a little more room. The rest, shall we say, is history. China can apply this same basic model when it comes to introducing EV's (and sub-compact ICE cars) here - focus on urban areas (where a EV can be a viable alternative for a commute car), keep it affordable and let brand awareness develop in a organic fashion - it WILL develop if the product is of good enough quality. Those last 3 words - "good enough quality" - is China ready for this when it comes to cars? Not yet, but close..........will they will be ready before that window of opportunity closes in America? I THINK they will, but they need to move faster before that window closes.
 
#22 ·
I couldn't agree with your assessment of the current state of the industry more:thumb: . You are right, many American's (as long as the economy was doing well) opted for bigger is better, SUVs, trucks and the All-American Muscle Cars actually just recently re-appeared with The Dodge Challenger and Chevy Camaro. Don't get me wrong, if we weren't facing serious climate change issues and a worldwide recession, I'd personally opt for a new Challenger with a hemi!:cool:
However, and here's the real irony, there is absolutely ZERO reason why this type of car can be re-envisioned as an equally powerful but socially, environmentally, and economically responsible EV with even better features and around the same price of USD 30k; this is what my "Wasp" 4wd solar electric sports coupe design promotes- you can have it all right now, but you're going to need a re-charge periodically.
However, I'm not responding just to advocate the building of my own design by an existing Chinese EV maker (though it is my eventual goal). Rather, I'm telling you that Ford has an aggresive advertising campaign in the US right now promoting several sub-compact mini cars for less than USD $9,000; they woke up and the GM imports you mentioned are coming too along with even more ICE offerings at the bottom of the market from Japan. MY POINT IS THIS DOOR IS CLOSING ON CHINA RIGHT THIS MINUTE! YOU CAN NOT COMPETE IN THIS SUB-COMPACT MARKET HERE BECAUSE ALL CAR MAKERS HAVE REALIZED THE MINI IS THE NEW MID-SIZED HERE. EVERYONE HERE IS ALREADY DOWNSIZING, SO WHY IN THE H*!L WOULD CHINA WANT TO SEND US MORE CARS LIKE THIS? 1.1L, 1.3L, etc...IS NOT THE ANSWER MAN-IT'S EVs- THIS MARKET IS STILL WIDE OPEN IF YOU'LL ONLY Carpe diem!
TAKE THE SMALLEST ORIGINAL CHINESE DESIGNS, STIR IN TWO HUB MOTORS, BAKE IN A COMFORTABLE CLIMATE CONTROLLED ENVIRONMENT-AND THE DISH IS READY TO SERVE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:rolleyes:
YOU'VE GOT TO GET ICE OFF THE BRAIN-ITS A DEAD END STREET YOU ARE RUSHING DOWN WHEN YOU COULD GET A CLEAR JUMP INTO A LEAD IN EVs! WAKE UP BEIJING AND DON"T FLUSH YOUR MONEY DOWN THE ICE TOILET!
 
#24 ·
I'm going green and all-electric for my next rig. Mitsubishi has announced today that by 2013 their new all-electric i-MiEV will be priced at only $22,000 in the U.S. That's down from what was talked about being $40,000-$50,000. Read it tonight at the website I've posted here.

You see, the red car you see in all my posts is a replica of my 2008 Mitsubishi Lancer GTS and I love the car immensely. I could possibly get a "loyalty rebate" from Mitsu in 2013 when buying an i-MiEV, too, eh?

http://www.allcarselectric.com/blog...tends-to-drop-price-to-22000-by-2013#comments
 
#25 · (Edited)
Universal Automotive Platform Guidelines that make dollars and sense for China :

1.According to almost all noted automotive engineering experts, major OEMs create platforms to be shared by multiple models- even across company and brand makes. Platforms are essential to develop so that production costs and upgrades can be assigned to many models. In the past decade we have seen the Ford Taurus platform applied to Jaguar and Volvo Models, Chrysler adopted existing Mercedes technology in developing their 300 series and Charger Models, GM has used this concept for years in creating three distinct vehicle sizes that applied this concept across the brand lines from Chevrolet to Cadillac. Even Nissan developed their mini- van offering years ago on the Maxima Platform to create excellent ride and handling characteristics. Honda, Toyota and Nissan offer multiple luxury models of differing Acura, Lexus and Infiniti variations on their mainstream models. Currently, GM has created a platform called The “Skateboard” upon which all future EVs will ride.
2.As the world economy shrinks, population expands and countries sign “Green Energy” legislation, cars will be forced to cut out design excesses to meet tighter and tighter emissions and fuel efficiency standards; reducing vehicle size and weight and improving aerodynamics makes these challenges easier to overcome. Most potential consumers now have far less disposable income (than before gas hit $4 a gallon in the US) to spend and now accept this eventuality.
3.Even if China ignores its' social responsibility to NOT put thousands of new polluting ICE models on the road every day, you are filling the pockets of foreign oil billionaires and forcing your own economy to be controlled by British, U.S., and Russian oil powers. Though much of the world's oil comes from The Middle-East- it is, in fact, controlled by the aforementioned powers. Therefore, it doesn't make any sort of long term sense to continue supporting a global oil economy in China, when China has no oil reserves!. If simple supply (of scores of new sub compact ICE models hitting the North American shores from every existing OEM) doesn't deter Chinese automakers- perhaps the clear global demand for quality EVs will! Consumers are screaming for EVs not more small ICE models. Wake up China, the supply of ICE subcompacts is just too great to take on while the demand for the same models in EV form is a wide open marketplace worldwide!
4.Moreover, China is emerging as a worldwide solar power supplier; this is a natural domestic Chinese business partnership waiting to happen by expanding both the EV offerings and solar product outlets. By building cars that offer solar recharging, you are not only cleaning up the dirty planet you helped to pollute, but also offering your customers a huge energy savings with some free charging and more importantly helping to meet Beijing's 8% annual GDP edict. Keep in mind, by offering solar powered cars, remote military operations and deliveries can be made far from power sources and China's coal reserves can be strategically saved for manufacturing expansion and powering older structures not suitable for solar (in other words, this will not significantly effect power company profits there. There will still be a huge demand for coal fired electricity).
5.Since fuel efficiency is proportional to vehicle size and weight, all new vehicle models must decrease wasted space by offering compact (but large enough for four large adults) interior designs; the best opportunity to meet this goal is by adopting the widespread use of BLDC hub motors that can offer regeneration right in the wheel without the need for A/C conversion expenses. With the complete drive train located right inside the wheels, space previously used for the transmission, differential and drive shafts can now be used to both house battery packs and increase passenger space/decrease weight and design excesses.
6.Since vehicle weight is also an established criteria for achieving economical operation, the extensive use of high strength plastic polymers and resins must be employed to create both the desired power to weight ratio, that is currently universally accepted as 15:1 in ICE designs (200hp = 3000lb car), and electrification safety considerations- it only makes sense to build exteriors with ABS bumpers, fiberglass bodies, and strategically reinforced carbon fiber components where needed, etc...and also open up the possibility of applying/laminating solar cells directly to the external shell. Please note, this does not mean the the car will not have structural rigidity- it simply means that the impact rigidity previously built into stamped steel fenders (with crumple zones) now has been moved inside the shell and spread to...
7.A frame-less floor pan with bulk heads designed to absorb impact (like oil freight ships) and further reinforced with a passenger safety cage (as are NASCAR race cars). Moreover, once the hub motor design has been adopted (see solar race cars) the twisting torque forces on the body have been eliminated by as much as 90% by allowing the power made in the wheels the go just a few inches (not throughout the entire vehicle body) directly to where the tire meets the road. In short, solar racers found out years ago, that when using hub motors- you no longer need a vehicle frame to rob power and create excessive weight.
8.Worldwide consumers have repeatedly said that they will accept the EV vehicle range issues if these cars can travel at least 100+ miles per charge (certainly solar extends this range substantially)- but they fully expect these theoretically cheaper to make (especially since lithium battery prices have now come down and EVs have 2/3 fewer parts to begin with) EVs to compete with their old model they are now ready to replace! This means value for dollar, in terms of features and benefits must equal the similarly sized and equipped ICE model. If the ICE subcompact offers offers a plush interior (as Ford is now addressing to compete with Honda, Toyota, etc...) with, PW, PDL, tilt, cruise, A/C etc...then the EV version of the car must offer the features at the same price- including vehicle power suitable for highway speeds. This means at least 100kw of power for even the smallest of cars! Consumers do want to save the planet, but not if it means giving up power and convenience features. This lesson must be learned if any of us are to successfully sell large numbers (and mass production is the only way this economy of scale can be created) of Evs.
9.The Japanese and Europeans already make great compact cars! Don't waste your time copying these car makers' metal ICE model designs! It will take you years to get anywhere near their technology and quality standards and we will accelerate global warming by tenfold in the process! Pouring money down this sewer will return you more earthquakes, tidal waves and volcanic eruptions as you go broke and become ICE OEM pawns to be manipulated.
10.:thumb: Put all of your money and energy into supplying the hard working factory workers and working poor of the world with reliable EV transportation. Not only is this the fastest growing market segment in India and China, but the worldwide recession has spread this need to Europe, Japan and North America as well. You have the wheel hub motor makers, the lithium battery producers, the plastics, the solar and manufacturing base to do this right! This is where you will sell the greatest numbers of cars in huge volume, by completely focusing on exceeding ICE subcompact standards in an original EV designed package (not insert underpowered electric motor in metal ICE car mentality).:nono:

*My own Stinger Motors Inc. Mission statement is offered as a corporate guideline under Idealist.org 's Affinty group: “I won't buy another new car until it's electric”.:mad:


THINK SOLAR GO GREEN CHINA :nod:
 
This is an older thread, you may not receive a response, and could be reviving an old thread. Please consider creating a new thread.
Top