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-   -   Alan Greenspan on China's Stocks Bubble (https://www.chinacarforums.com/forum/showthread.php?t=2533)

bassfisher 05-24-2007 10:59 PM

Alan Greenspan on China's Stocks Bubble
 
Former Fed Chairman is at it again. He spoke on the danger of a bubble in chinas equities and the worldwide damage such action may produce.
The results were not pretty. The DJIA advanced over 100 points only to generate a Key Reversal and end the day down about 80 pts. I noted internal market weakness in NewYork at 10am that suggests strong downward pressures which classically signal a market top.
My only confusion is that this critical event occurred at a time of record short sale interest and at a time when investor sentiment is too sceptic to allow a interim top pattern.

My investment portfolio is now heavy in canadian resources after running up 160% profits in the Excel China Fund over the past 2 years.
My chart work (i am a student of the markets and have been spanked many times so please don't read too much into my ramblings) suggests a topping and reversing process internationally. PMG futures suggest extreme weakness with a possible slide toward 621.for gold. Oil and products remain strong and charts suggest strength is wide based.

I hope to save some of you grief, there is at least a 63% chance that markets have entered corrections which will take 15% off in very short order. There is a 37% likelihood that the entire bull run for emerging markets is complete and that a retracement of 30% or better is in the offing.

Take profits and sit in cash, metals are subject to further correction. If this downtrend expands into September (and i think it will) it may be prudent to buy any of the short selling basket ETF;s out there. QID the proshares ultrashort rose by 3% today and should do very well in the next 3 months.

I welcome your opinions and hope that i have misread the charts, the end may not be neigh, but its really damn close.

bassfisher 06-04-2007 10:31 PM

A humbled bass notes that the qid ultrashorts are down in the order of $3 each now and nestled into 52 week lows. Ouch!!!
My short of the US markets is teaching me a very, very bad lesson here.

Still holding short, but far poorer for the experience. US markets shrugged off china decline today to finish higher.
Market being manipulated in final hour daily...confidence is seriously damaged over here in bassland....

bassfisher 06-07-2007 10:04 PM

Bass looks happier today!!! Market down 400 pts in past few days. holding short position for now, trailing stop loss in place.
Are you able to short stox in china?


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