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Old 05-24-2007, 10:59 PM   #1
bassfisher
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 90
Default Alan Greenspan on China's Stocks Bubble

Former Fed Chairman is at it again. He spoke on the danger of a bubble in chinas equities and the worldwide damage such action may produce.
The results were not pretty. The DJIA advanced over 100 points only to generate a Key Reversal and end the day down about 80 pts. I noted internal market weakness in NewYork at 10am that suggests strong downward pressures which classically signal a market top.
My only confusion is that this critical event occurred at a time of record short sale interest and at a time when investor sentiment is too sceptic to allow a interim top pattern.

My investment portfolio is now heavy in canadian resources after running up 160% profits in the Excel China Fund over the past 2 years.
My chart work (i am a student of the markets and have been spanked many times so please don't read too much into my ramblings) suggests a topping and reversing process internationally. PMG futures suggest extreme weakness with a possible slide toward 621.for gold. Oil and products remain strong and charts suggest strength is wide based.

I hope to save some of you grief, there is at least a 63% chance that markets have entered corrections which will take 15% off in very short order. There is a 37% likelihood that the entire bull run for emerging markets is complete and that a retracement of 30% or better is in the offing.

Take profits and sit in cash, metals are subject to further correction. If this downtrend expands into September (and i think it will) it may be prudent to buy any of the short selling basket ETF;s out there. QID the proshares ultrashort rose by 3% today and should do very well in the next 3 months.

I welcome your opinions and hope that i have misread the charts, the end may not be neigh, but its really damn close.
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