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Dr. Al, it is obvious that you have some real significant experience in the auto industry, and it's great to have you commenting on the forum - I know I'm learning things and I'm sure other people are too. Question for you - do you have any idea WHAT new ICE sub-compacts the american companies are developing right now? I know about the Chevy Beat (it will be the 2nd generation Spark), but beyond that.........what else? Chrysler is hooked up with Fiat now, so I assume America will see the Fiat 500 soon (which is great, it's a cool little car). Beyond that, I don't know about anything else. Maybe the Ford Ka? I REALLY think that american manufacturers have shown little social responsibility by literally refusing to sell sub-compacts in America....I know, I know - razor-thin profit margins for those cars. However, here is the ultimate sad fact - the smallest car right now that is sold by a american manufacturer is the Chevy Aveo, and the engine size is 1.6l. That is the SMALLEST car available with a american brand name on it????? Absolutely disgusting that the american consumer doesn't even have a CHOICE when it comes to american made small cars, and it's really no surprise they (Ford/Chrysler/GM) are have so many major problems right now. It's no wonder that the japanese/korean manufacturers have stepped in to fill that void so well, but even they have gotten oversized and bloated. Anyone want to guess now how many cars are available now in America with a engine size below 1.5l - from ANY manufacturer (foreign or domestic)? The answer..........ONE - the Smart Car. Honda Fit? Hyundai Accent? Toyota Yaris? Nissan Versa? All 1.5l engines and above - american consumers don't get the smaller engine choices we get in China (like the 1.3l Fit, the 1.4l Accent or the 1.2l Yaris). WHY???? A 1.3l engine can handle highway speeds just fine and has plenty of power for the city (so does a 1.0l for that matter if you're not worried about being a speed demon)....what this REALLY comes down to is the american cultural and sociological attitude of "biggest, fastest, highest, loudest, etc...". Most americans are so used to "keeping up with the joneses" that they're never happy with all the things and comforts they ALREADY HAVE. Who wants to choose the option of a smaller engine when they can afford the bigger one? THAT is the central issue, and until the american culture gets used to downsizing and conserving (or gas reaches $6-7.00 a gallon, which will happen before americans downsize much), tiny ICE sub-compacts will have a tough hill to climb in regards to american sales.
WITH all of this in mind, I still think that chinese manufacturers could still be successful with ICE sub-compacts - but how?? Simple - start modest, and use Honda as a example. In 1971, Honda started it's auto legacy in America with all of ONE car to sell - the Honda 600. They didn't try to sell nationwide at first, they just focused on the major urban areas (NYC, Los Angeles, the Bay Area) on the coasts - places where a small, nimble little car would fit in well. It didn't sell all that well, but Honda stuck with it and introduced the Civic in 1973 - a little bigger engine and a little more room. The rest, shall we say, is history. China can apply this same basic model when it comes to introducing EV's (and sub-compact ICE cars) here - focus on urban areas (where a EV can be a viable alternative for a commute car), keep it affordable and let brand awareness develop in a organic fashion - it WILL develop if the product is of good enough quality. Those last 3 words - "good enough quality" - is China ready for this when it comes to cars? Not yet, but close..........will they will be ready before that window of opportunity closes in America? I THINK they will, but they need to move faster before that window closes.
WITH all of this in mind, I still think that chinese manufacturers could still be successful with ICE sub-compacts - but how?? Simple - start modest, and use Honda as a example. In 1971, Honda started it's auto legacy in America with all of ONE car to sell - the Honda 600. They didn't try to sell nationwide at first, they just focused on the major urban areas (NYC, Los Angeles, the Bay Area) on the coasts - places where a small, nimble little car would fit in well. It didn't sell all that well, but Honda stuck with it and introduced the Civic in 1973 - a little bigger engine and a little more room. The rest, shall we say, is history. China can apply this same basic model when it comes to introducing EV's (and sub-compact ICE cars) here - focus on urban areas (where a EV can be a viable alternative for a commute car), keep it affordable and let brand awareness develop in a organic fashion - it WILL develop if the product is of good enough quality. Those last 3 words - "good enough quality" - is China ready for this when it comes to cars? Not yet, but close..........will they will be ready before that window of opportunity closes in America? I THINK they will, but they need to move faster before that window closes.