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773 Posts
Seems like a lot of people do not understand the core essentials of my arguement, so I put up this nice summary.
1. Chinese auto industry is not ready to hit developed markets as of today.
2. Chinese auto industry won't become a significant factor in developed markets for another 10 years.(That's 2016)
3. There is a room for only two Chinese global players. One is SAIC. The other is expected to be FAW.
4. Chery and Geely will hit a growth wall soon as they lack the capital necessary to become truely global players.
5. Chinese auto industry will go through a major consolidation, leaving only a handful of Chinese owned companies. The rest will perish.
6. Chinese auto export will not exceed 2 million/year maximum annually. Any more will cause a trade war with the US and EU.
7. Chinese auto market resembles the US(weak domestic producers and strong foreign producers. A large domestic market) more than Japan(strong domestic producers and weak foreign importers. A small domestic market).
1. Chinese auto industry is not ready to hit developed markets as of today.
2. Chinese auto industry won't become a significant factor in developed markets for another 10 years.(That's 2016)
3. There is a room for only two Chinese global players. One is SAIC. The other is expected to be FAW.
4. Chery and Geely will hit a growth wall soon as they lack the capital necessary to become truely global players.
5. Chinese auto industry will go through a major consolidation, leaving only a handful of Chinese owned companies. The rest will perish.
6. Chinese auto export will not exceed 2 million/year maximum annually. Any more will cause a trade war with the US and EU.
7. Chinese auto market resembles the US(weak domestic producers and strong foreign producers. A large domestic market) more than Japan(strong domestic producers and weak foreign importers. A small domestic market).