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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Seems like a lot of people do not understand the core essentials of my arguement, so I put up this nice summary.

1. Chinese auto industry is not ready to hit developed markets as of today.
2. Chinese auto industry won't become a significant factor in developed markets for another 10 years.(That's 2016)
3. There is a room for only two Chinese global players. One is SAIC. The other is expected to be FAW.
4. Chery and Geely will hit a growth wall soon as they lack the capital necessary to become truely global players.
5. Chinese auto industry will go through a major consolidation, leaving only a handful of Chinese owned companies. The rest will perish.
6. Chinese auto export will not exceed 2 million/year maximum annually. Any more will cause a trade war with the US and EU.
7. Chinese auto market resembles the US(weak domestic producers and strong foreign producers. A large domestic market) more than Japan(strong domestic producers and weak foreign importers. A small domestic market).
 

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Thats a nice list and a sensible one but history suggests that you should not ignore the smaller players - look at the history of Honda for example.

There is room for one or two of the smaller companies to also become global players, maybe GWM and Nanjing for example. GWM although small is already a significant exporter and Nanjing already exports to and has a factory in Europe.

SAIC and FAW may have capital but they are currently not making significant progress on their own products and are dependent on their foreign partners.

I think you could add an 8th item - That the Chinese companies will in future have to pay in full for either designs or development of designs since copying will no longer be permited.
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
Thats a nice list and a sensible one but history suggests that you should not ignore the smaller players - look at the history of Honda for example.
I don't see quality of Honda in any of China's newcomers, a company run by a madman obsessed with engineering. Honda was a "one of a kind" case unlikely to be ever repeated.

There is room for one or two of the smaller companies to also become global players, maybe GWM and Nanjing for example. GWM although small is already a significant exporter and Nanjing already exports to and has a factory in Europe.
The fact is that only those with billions in the bank can afford to outspend and rise above competition. The car market in a developing country always repeats the same pattern. One company has slightly more cash than the others, so it outspends the competition to bring out better cars at cheaper price, driving out the competition in the process and becoming a monopoly. Much the same way GM once monopolized the US market in the 50s, ditto for Toyota and Hyundai too.
 

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Real_I_Hate_China said:
1. Chinese auto industry is not ready to hit developed markets as of today.
you think the whole chinese company marketing staff is STUPID???!# they say 2008 for a reason, they got experience and education. you, just sit down, read a few articles, and say the chinese cant do it. who do you think you are, you think you are smarter than bricklin?? all you ever do is drive your stupid corrolla and stare at the computer all day. i bet you havent even seen or drove a chery.
Real_I_Hate_China said:
2. Chinese auto industry won't become a significant factor in developed markets for another 10 years.(That's 2016)
well guess what, your kinda behind to pack they are comming in 2008. and again you little korean dude staring at the computer, reading articles, and think that YOU ARE SO DAMN SMART WHEN YOU HAVE TOTALLY NO EXPERIENCE IN THE AUTO INDUSTRY, YOUR ONLY DAMN EXPERIENCE IS BEHIND THE WHEEL OF YOUR DAMN CORROLLA THINKING OF HOW TO BS IN THIS FORUM.
Real_I_Hate_China said:
3. There is a room for only two Chinese global players. One is SAIC. The other is expected to be FAW.
well i bet you saic and faw started out as small companies too, the whole entire ford empire started with a pitty lawn mower engine bounded to two bikes. And bill gates started out fixing computers in his garage.
Real_I_Hate_China said:
4. Chery and Geely will hit a growth wall soon as they lack the capital necessary to become truely global players.
ALL THE EMPLOYEES AND MARKETING STAFF FROM CHERY AND GEELY ARE NOT STUPID&*$%&*&#*%&* well hater you see capital goes out to make the car, and more capital comes back in from selling the damn cars. and where is this growth wall think your talking about, you mean the 1.3 billion people in china? or the other 5.8 billion around the world??
Real_I_Hate_China said:
5. Chinese auto industry will go through a major consolidation, leaving only a handful of Chinese owned companies. The rest will perish.
oh yea, who do you think you are? god? jesus?? why dont you tell me the price of general electric two years from now, so i could make some money off of it. and again, PEOPLE WORKING IN THE CHINESE AUTO COMPANIES ARE NOT STUPID.
Real_I_Hate_China said:
6. Chinese auto export will not exceed 2 million/year maximum annually. Any more will cause a trade war with the US and EU.
well you know what, a trade war would cause more damage in euro and us rather than china. how would you like to buy a t shirt not made in china for $50.00, or maby a keyboard not made in china for $450.00, or how about a iPOd not made in china for $2300.
Real_I_Hate_China said:
7. Chinese auto market resembles the US(weak domestic producers and strong foreign producers. A large domestic market) more than Japan(strong domestic producers and weak foreign importers. A small domestic market).
well guess what this is all going to change, the chinese are accepting domestic brands as their quality get better, just look at that states. and since china is such a large market this means that all the foreign brands doing buisness in china are getting more and more screwed.
 

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Everyone knows your stance on the Chinese auto industry, and have known it even before they saw any of your posts. The purpose of this forum is to inform the public of the emerging Chinese automotive market, show the world how it has progressed, and to some degree actually notify the automotive manufactures about what the English speaking world thinks about there product. So as a result, the posters exhibit an optimistic view about the future that is being created, rather than the shameful past. So, in your quest to make your point known, you are the one who has veered away from your own position. Besides, people don't disagree with your view points, they disagree with the way you express them, how you twist words to reinforce your points, and how you blow off people who have first hand experience in the world market and have seen first hand the development of the Chinese market.
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
they say 2008 for a reason
Chinese are not coming in 2008. Don't expect one until 2010 model year at the earliest, and those will sell poorly and be made a joke of late night talk shows.

And bill gates started out fixing computers in his garage.
No he didn't.

well hater you see capital goes out to make the car, and more capital comes back in from selling the damn cars.
Yea, $50 per car according to reports. Honda makes more money selling single Accord than 60 Cherys sold. This is why Chery can't really compete; they don't have a cash cow.

and where is this growth wall think your talking about, you mean the 1.3 billion people in china? or the other 5.8 billion around the world??
Just Chinese domestic market. Developed markets aren't growing and the other hot growing economy, India, is fairly protectionist about its own market.

a trade war would cause more damage in euro and us rather than china.
Americans and Europeans are doing fine without Chinese cars. I don't see why they would suddenly suffer when Chinese cars are banned in those markets.

how would you like to buy a t shirt not made in china for $50.00, or maby a keyboard not made in china for $450.00, or how about a iPOd not made in china for $2300.
Buy from some other countries, like India, Phillipine, etc. What, you thought only China could produce those T-shirts?

and since china is such a large market this means that all the foreign brands doing buisness in china are getting more and more screwed.
Actually all the major capacity expansion news comes from foreigners, not Chinese. I haven't heard of Chery building a new factory to accomodate their "booming" sales, whereas Japanese and Korean brands are at war to expand their production capacity past 1 million/year.

what the English speaking world thinks about there product.
I don't see too many non-Chinese on this board(Who cares about Chinese cars anyway). It is just me lone non-Chinese Vs an army of Chinese waging a war of words.
 

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real_I_hate_china, i respect your post since you put the effort to back them up, but honestly speaking..

how did your interest in chinese cars arise, even if its a more negative outlook?

:(
 

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mrgq said:
real_I_hate_china, i respect your post since you put the effort to back them up, but honestly speaking..

how did your interest in chinese cars arise, even if its a more negative outlook?

:(
yea i_hate_china, what sparked your deep interest in chinese cars? how did you first hear of them?
 

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What puzzles me is that since you hate China and Chinese cars - you sure spend a heck a lot of time doing research...

Well, fortunately there's someone like me to balance you out - as soon as a Chinese made car arrive on our shores (US of A), I'll run out to buy one.

I even want to open a car dealership selling them but I don't know where to start... :(
 

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Well when i get back to the states which is where I am originally from, I wouldnt mind getting me a 19,000 - 25,000 dollar 400 Horsepower V8 AWD car made by Chery. So far from what I hear their products sound like they will be freaking bargains.
 

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I sort of agree with Real_I_Hate_China about FAW and SAIC becoming the big players in Chinese Export industry and making it successful overseas in Europe and US.

I don't agree with the 2016 estimate for China to become a player in developed countries I think 2009-2010 sounds more reasonable.

I think either Chery or Geely will break into these developed markets leading the way for the rest, FAW & SAIC will sit back and learn from them.

BTW if you think China isn't ready for Western world look at the quality of the Polo Classic (Sedan) that was exported to Australia unsuccessfully.
It was up there with products from Mexico, South Africa etc
 

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SVW exported Polos

phaeton said:
BTW if you think China isn't ready for Western world look at the quality of the Polo Classic (Sedan) that was exported to Australia unsuccessfully.
It was up there with products from Mexico, South Africa etc
How is that quality Phaeton? Have you had a chance to see it first hand?

Heard that Shanghai Volkswagen has a 5 year contract to sell 600 Polos to Australia each year, but hadn't heard that the operation was unsuccessful.
 

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要了解这个小韩国对中国的恨意,你要先了解他的思维。这些小韩国就是把他们的自
卑感觉成自大想法,就是一种来安慰自己自卑的方法。小狗吠叫,我们大中国不
用管。
 

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Discussion Starter · #15 ·
I don't agree with the 2016 estimate for China to become a player in developed countries I think 2009-2010 sounds more reasonable.
2010 is only one more generation away from current generation of Chinese vehicles. Do you honestly believe that Chinese will make a quantum leap in quality and performance in just one generation? Of course not.

BTW if you think China isn't ready for Western world look at the quality of the Polo Classic (Sedan) that was exported to Australia unsuccessfully.
It was up there with products from Mexico, South Africa etc
That Polo would be considered a German car assembled in China, not a Chinese car.
 

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dragin said:
How is that quality Phaeton? Have you had a chance to see it first hand?

Heard that Shanghai Volkswagen has a 5 year contract to sell 600 Polos to Australia each year, but hadn't heard that the operation was unsuccessful.
Sales were not good, VW Australia wanted annual sales of 600 a year for 5 yrs.
They never broke the 100 unit mark during its sale here (for a year) unfortunately.

Press were excited at start of deal but some models had minor rattles that got into press vehicles, although this is not the major reason of it failing.
VW Aust. priced it very high for its class.

Another reason for its flop might be people were scared of Chinese product.

BTW Rattles are not just a Chinese cars fault most makers have minor faults like this I've read many reviews with this fault.
 

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Real_I_Hate_China said:
2010 is only one more generation away from current generation of Chinese vehicles. Do you honestly believe that Chinese will make a quantum leap in quality and performance in just one generation? Of course not.
From what I've heard here about SAIC building platforms to comply with EU Laws it could happen.


Real_I_Hate_China said:
That Polo would be considered a German car assembled in China, not a Chinese car.
True, but with Chinese parts its considered part Chinese.
 

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Discussion Starter · #18 ·
Another reason for its flop might be people were scared of Chinese product.
Something that Chinese posters on this forum don't understand...

From what I've heard here about SAIC building platforms to comply with EU Laws it could happen.
Actually, the company most likely to succeed among Chinese venders doesn't think they would be ready to take on the world for another 8 years. And they are using British and Korean engineered cars, not Chinese engineered cars, to make the initial push.

True, but with Chinese parts its considered part Chinese.
Well, shoppers would be trusting that VW badge, not "Made in China" tag...
 

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News for you............

Real_I_Hate_China said:
2010 is only one more generation away from current generation of Chinese vehicles. Do you honestly believe that Chinese will make a quantum leap in quality and performance in just one generation? Of course not.

It's ALREADY happened, China hater!! I've talked about this before, but to refresh your memory I'll say it again..........

I first looked at A Geely car in Dec. of 2003 (the Haoqing). HORRIBLE fake wood trim, poor fit and finish, a weak underpowered engine (1.0, SOHC, no MPI) and in general a pretty bad car. Now, in 2006 (April, to be exact) - no more wood trim, A MUCH better interior with MUCH better fit and finish (nice neutral colors, comfortable seats, much better ergonomics all around), a MUCH better engine (same 1.0, but with DOHC and MPI - more power, better gas mileage) and in general a MUCH better car...........in TWO AND A HALF YEARS. This is just ONE example, and the same is true with almost ALL chinese brands (I KNOW this because I regularly go to all auto shows in Nanning, AND I follow up on that with visits to various dealers with friends) - more models being offered, better quality all around, more and more comfort features being offered as standard equipment..........it's happening FAST here. You see, you WOULDN'T KNOW THIS BECAUSE YOU ARE NOT HERE - and READING about it or seeing pics on the internet is a weak substitute for actually seeing one, sitting in one, feeling the quality of the switches, feeling the frimness and comfort of the seats, seeing and starting the engine, putting the car in gear and ACTUALLY DRIVING THE CAR!!!!

It's pretty simple, actually - you need to QUIT trying to tell us about things that you don't have REAL WORLD EXPERIENCE WITH (I know, a futile request - you will continue to sit in front of your computer and read things on the internet and try and tell us how right you are and how wrong we are...even though WE are the ones who ACTUALLY see and drive these cars and NOT you). Now, to be fair about things..............the current generation of chinese cars are STILL not up to the level of what is needed to be competitive in most foreign developed markets (especially the USA). I make NO arguement concerning that - the chinese auto companies still have a lot of things to improve on. HOWEVER, based on the level of progress and improvement they are achieving in a VERY short period of time, 2009-2010 is NOT a unrealistic goal for them as far as marketing a product that CAN be competitive in the USA. I DO know this - the american car-buying public can be fickle at times, and a new, unique product CAN become a sales sensation (I refer again to Hyundai in 1986 - the Excel was NOT a great car, but the VERY attractive price allowed it to set a sales record for first year models that has yet to be equaled). I DON'T think any chinese car (no matter NOW good it might be at that time) will become that popular..........but I DON'T think that it will be a failure either. I'm not being positive or negative - I am being REALISTIC...........something you might consider trying sometime, China hater.
 

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Discussion Starter · #20 ·
Now, in 2006 (April, to be exact) - no more wood trim, A MUCH better interior with MUCH better fit and finish (nice neutral colors, comfortable seats, much better ergonomics all around), a MUCH better engine (same 1.0, but with DOHC and MPI - more power, better gas mileage) and in general a MUCH better car...........in TWO AND A HALF YEARS.
Still not up to 2000's standard.

Now, to be fair about things..............the current generation of chinese cars are STILL not up to the level of what is needed to be competitive in most foreign developed markets (especially the USA).
By your own admission Chinese cars are not competitive in developed markets. Thank you for proving my points.

HOWEVER, based on the level of progress and improvement they are achieving in a VERY short period of time, 2009-2010 is NOT a unrealistic goal for them as far as marketing a product that CAN be competitive in the USA.
Why do you think Toyota and Hyundai of 2010 will be same as Toyota and Hyundai of 2006? The major players are moving targets; very fast ones to hit indeed.

(I refer again to Hyundai in 1986 - the Excel was NOT a great car, but the VERY attractive price allowed it to set a sales record for first year models that has yet to be equaled).
Hyundai Excel was essentially a fully up to date Mitsubishi econobox sold at a big discount. The car was up to date engineering wise; what it didn't have was quality of Japanese.

Japanese smarted from this lesson and something like this won't ever be repeated.

I am being REALISTIC...........something you might consider trying sometime, China hater
I am the one being realistic; you are not.
 
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