China Car Forums banner
41 - 60 of 67 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
305 Posts
correct........

DOS said:
You definately know something about the Chinese automotive industry that is not posted on the internet, or else you and fightingtorque would not have been so insistant on hater actually going to China. I guess I will find out in 2009.
You are 100% correct........now WHAT do you think it might be? Actually, it's pretty simple - you can READ about virtually anything and everything on the internet, and you can SEE pictures as well. But what is missing? The ACTUAL EXPEREINCE of being somewhere, touching something, smelling it, etc........I think you understand what I am trying to say here. The simple fact that fightingtorque and I are living in China gives us a MUCH different perspective vs. China hater's internet-based opinion. I am not going to argue the fact that chinese cars are not up to the quality of american, european or japanese cars - but I can ALSO say that the gap between them is narrowing very rapidly. Actually sitting in a Geely, or Chery, or Hafei, or any other chinese brand car is proof of that for me. Actually DRIVING most of the chinese cars is FURTHER proof of that as well. Fightingtorque can also attest to this as well - he OWNS a Chery (based on the posts I read here on this forum). When someone like China hater tries to tell all of us how bad chinese cars are, EVEN THOUGH he has NEVER even SEEN one with his own eyes (much less actually drive one).........that bothers me. He IS entitled to his opinion (as we all are), and he IS a highly educated person - but if he REALLY wants to speak with authority, then he SHOULD COME TO CHINA to see and drive these cars for himself! If that ever happens (and I doubt that it will), THEN I will be much more inclined to read his words. For me, I am MUCH more likely to listen to someone who has actually had experience with something (be it cars, electronics, etc...) vs. JUST internet research. Internet research IS valuable and can provide A LOT of information.......but it is the beginning of the process of knowing about something, not the end. Research COMBINED with hands on experience is the best combonation, and someone like fightingtorque (a Chery owner) already has that. Real experience, my friends - there is NO substitute for that. :)
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
561 Posts
jmsteiny said:
But what is missing? The ACTUAL EXPEREINCE of being somewhere, touching something, smelling it, etc........I think you understand what I am trying to say here. The simple fact that fightingtorque and I are living in China gives us a MUCH different perspective vs. China hater's internet-based opinion.
lol i agree
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
772 Posts
Discussion Starter · #43 ·
I believe it was Giorgetto Giugiaro who said"It took Japan 40 years to become a great automotive nation. It took South Korea 20 years. I think it will take China as little as 10 to 15 years."
He is wrong.

Japan : Modern Japanese auto industry began in the late 40s, then became the world player by mid 70s, thanks to two oil shocks. That's a period of roughly 28 years.
Korea : Modern Korean auto industry began in the mid 70s, then became the world player by early 2000s. That's another period of 28 years.
China : Modern Chinese auto industry began in the mid 90s. By above calculations, Chinese still have 18 more years to go before they reach the global player level, selling cars that could go head to head with Japanese and Korean models.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
459 Posts
There are many variables to take into consideration to that simplistic assumption. Times have changed, growth for many of these companies is heavily accelerated due to strong sales. If I remeber correctly Brilliance experienced over 100 percent growth in sales over the previous year, as did Chery. Did the Japanese or Korean companies ever experience such phenomenal growth in such a short amount of time? No I don't think so...
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
772 Posts
Discussion Starter · #45 ·
There are many variables to take into consideration to that simplistic assumption. Times have changed
And Chinese are going up against Japanese with a very high customer satisfaction, unlike Japanese who went up against Americans selling gas-guzzling junk cars. Customers have no reason to switch to Chinese.

growth for many of these companies is heavily accelerated due to strong sales.
Hyundai broke the new import model sales record, a record unlikely to be ever broken, with 1985 launch of Excel. Then it took Hyundai another 18 years to become a true global player.

Did the Japanese or Korean companies ever experience such phenomenal growth in such a short amount of time?
People were lined up to buy Toyotas during two oil shocks of 1970s. Chinese won't enjoy the record breaking sales that Toyota and Hyundai enjoyed back in the 70s and 80s.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
450 Posts
DOS said:
I believe it was Giorgetto Giugiaro who said "It took Japan 40 years to become a great automotive nation. It took South Korea 20 years. I think it will take China as little as 10 to 15 years."
Of course he is wrong. I am not sure how old he is, but on the wall next to me is a picture of one of his designs, the Lotus Esprit, which came out in 1976. At that time there was no internet, no google etc. So Guigiaro didn't grow up in the modern age, doubtless he makes his comments based only on experience of working face to face with motor manufacturers and seeing the way the auto industry has grown and changed over several decades.

For sure his opinions can't be held in such high esteem as hater who uses the latest technology (internet, google, clusty etc) to tap such a vast wealth of knowledge and enables him to predict the future with such clinical accuracy.

Guigaro. I'm sure he's a complete fuel and we shouldn't take his comments seriously. Ha ha ha, Hater forever!
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
772 Posts
Discussion Starter · #47 ·
Of course he is wrong.
Of course.

Chinese auto industry of 2006 is comparable to Japanese auto industry of 1960, and Korean auto industry of 1983 in terms of product maturity in the world market.

The only difference is that Japanese and Korean markets were well-protected to buy enough time for their domestic makers, whereas Chinese auto market is overrun by foreigners and native Chinese auto industry is going through a rough consolidation, leaving just a handful of survivers from 160 or so auto companies.

Another difference is that Japanese and Korean automakers had to go overseas to survive, whereas Chinese automakers are enjoying a brisk business selling in their home markets, so the export is just an afterthought.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
772 Posts
Discussion Starter · #48 ·
Most, if not all, Japanese and Korean auto plants are located by seaside, some with built-in ports, because these factories were geared for exports from the beginning.

On the other hand, most Chinese auto plants are built inland, since these Chinese auto plants were for domestic consumption only. Moving Cherys from Wuhu to a seaport alone would add $600 to the cost of a Chery export.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
450 Posts
Real_I_Hate_China said:
On the other hand, most Chinese auto plants are built inland, since these Chinese auto plants were for domestic consumption only. Moving Cherys from Wuhu to a seaport alone would add $600 to the cost of a Chery export.
Interested to know where you get the 600USD from. Based on my inland shipments of parts, I would guess that a car weighing 1.5 tonnes to ship the 500km from wuhu to shanghai would cost about 200USD. And a shipment of 10-12 cars is more weight than I move in one go so could be cheaper, although on the other hand more bulky.

Of course if you read it on internet then I'm sure it's true.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
561 Posts
come on people you cant compare china with japan and korea, just cause it took japan korea 40 or 28 whatever years to get into the auto industry it dosnt mean it would take china that long to do this. just think of it, 50 years ago china was the looser getting attacked by the japanese and europeans. now, in just 50 years the chinese rosed up as one of the top three most powerful countries in the world.
again, i dont know how many times i have to say this to get this into your mind mr hater. the shenzhou project, the japanese and europeans tryed many years to get man to space, but the rocket just falls back down. but china with a latter start is working to get 4 or even 8 men to space, while the japanese didnt even have their first man up yet.
times have changed, the most powerful countries are not fast enough to keep up with china's accelleration. china would catch up in no time, just like the fighter jets they build, there milliarty weapons, olympic medals, space technology etc etc etc.
and please this should be the last time i need to mention that CHINA CANT BE COMPARED WITH JAPAN AND KOREA.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
450 Posts
Real_I_Hate_China said:
You transport cars on a car carrier. How much does it cost to run a car carrier from Wuhu to the nearest car loading dock and back???
If I knew that I'd tell you. I could find out but I thought you'd be able to show us which internet site you found it out on.

Since we've seen in another post on this forum that they have either 10 or 12 cars per transporter, then according to your 600 USD per car it must cost 6000-7200 USD.

The parts analagy comes from the idea that a truck is something that uses fuel according to the work it does, which is going to bear a strong relationship to the weight it hauls (yes I know about air resistance, rolling resistance etc so don't start) and the capital cost and maintenance cost, which again are related to the load. Following that analagy I come up with about 200USD.

However, to get this right why don't you look up some chinese trucking companies on the internet and get some quotes? I would have thought you already did that, surely you didn't just pull 600 USD out your tailpipe and post it in with all your carefully researched data?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
132 Posts
Japanes and Koreans all had their opportunities in their take-off run and if you put things in perspective Chinese today have their own advantages.

Many of cutting edge technologies these days are avaliable on the market for the new comers to buy which can significantly reduce the time it would otherwise have to spend on R&D on its own. So does your "rule of 28" still hold these days???

Chery, since its birth has proven itself that it can do a fairly good job integrating componets coming from 3 continents (NA, AS, EU) and when they ship a bunch of them to US with quality at least comparable to Korean cars but priced much lower, I bet they can significant under cut Koreans, the same way they under cut Japs back in 90s.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
132 Posts
Real_I_Hate_China said:
The fact is that only those with billions in the bank can afford to outspend and rise above competition. The car market in a developing country always repeats the same pattern. One company has slightly more cash than the others, so it outspends the competition to bring out better cars at cheaper price, driving out the competition in the process and becoming a monopoly. Much the same way GM once monopolized the US market in the 50s, ditto for Toyota and Hyundai too.
Chery is a bit uniqic when it comes to financing, you may have to do more research and get some education on this. Chery is a bybrid in its business nature, a goverment entity and a profit driven corporate at the same time. Being part of the Commi government means it can tap into its 1T (that is 1000 billion +) US dollar currency reserve. As recent as last week, it was awarded US $3000 for one of its development projects. Does any other car manufacture in the world enjoy the same government subsities like Chery? ON the surface it may look small but it has a financial backing of a country above and underneath the table. Now China is determined to make Chery export to US a sccess, it is certain they will be recieving more funds and allow them to price their cars at even lower price.

If one day US cries out for unfair trading the Commi government will most likely throw its weight behind negotiation table. At the end it will be a comprimise because US fears Boeing being thrown out of the country.

If you look at the bright side, the US comsumers will ripe all the rewards at the cost of Koreans (mostly) and Japanes. The people who are buying GM, FORD are the ******** that will buy GM FORD even if they didn't have wheels.


Like it or, this is how it is going to play out.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
249 Posts
Real_I_Hate_China said:
3. There is a room for only two Chinese global players. One is SAIC. The other is expected to be FAW.
Think you can add Nanjing MG to that list. It sounds like they have secured 2 billion dollars of investment from the US and now have some Chinese banks bankrolling them. Unlike SAIC and FAW they also have a brand that appeals in Europe and the US.

I agree with your point that the Chinese currently have no engineering capability. ARUP is doing all Nanjings engineering and is busy setting up Longbridge as the main center for R&D.

In addition Ricardo is doing all the R&D for SAIC and have even recruited most of Rover's engineers. The Chinese will get there as they are turning out more engineers from Uni than any other country in the world...
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
111 Posts
Real_I_Hate_China said:
Seems like a lot of people do not understand the core essentials of my arguement, so I put up this nice summary.

1. Chinese auto industry is not ready to hit developed markets as of today.
2. Chinese auto industry won't become a significant factor in developed markets for another 10 years.(That's 2016)
3. There is a room for only two Chinese global players. One is SAIC. The other is expected to be FAW.
4. Chery and Geely will hit a growth wall soon as they lack the capital necessary to become truely global players.
5. Chinese auto industry will go through a major consolidation, leaving only a handful of Chinese owned companies. The rest will perish.
6. Chinese auto export will not exceed 2 million/year maximum annually. Any more will cause a trade war with the US and EU.
7. Chinese auto market resembles the US(weak domestic producers and strong foreign producers. A large domestic market) more than Japan(strong domestic producers and weak foreign importers. A small domestic market).
Excellent points. :thumb:
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
111 Posts
Real_I_Hate_China said:
And Chinese are going up against Japanese with a very high customer satisfaction, unlike Japanese who went up against Americans selling gas-guzzling junk cars. Customers have no reason to switch to Chinese.


Hyundai broke the new import model sales record, a record unlikely to be ever broken, with 1985 launch of Excel. Then it took Hyundai another 18 years to become a true global player.


People were lined up to buy Toyotas during two oil shocks of 1970s. Chinese won't enjoy the record breaking sales that Toyota and Hyundai enjoyed back in the 70s and 80s.
The point is very true. Japanese cars got a giant kick-start because they filled a niche that American cars hadn't addressed, fuel economy. Something especially important in the 1970's. I don't see there being any market niche for chinese cars.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
4 Posts
I don't see a niche market, I see a mass market!! I hate to say it but with soaring oil prices and more importantly that ever, environmental concerns, a developing country like China has a huge advantage. Conditions are right in China; a supportive government, a growing affluent population who are concerned about the environment and probably most importantly a highly motivated/funded business community. In that you have a recipe that may just well create a world standard indigenous automotive industry within a few years and within as short a timescale again, a world leader in alternative fuel cell technology. Why not!

What you must consider, is that to change technology, especially entrenched technology such as the petrol/diesel car, you require infrastructure. Infrastructure is not owned by GM, Toyota, Renault or Honda. The Government ultimately decides! And the government can give the advantage to its own companies by pushing them in a certain direction. China is different to most countries in that its business make up has a large proportion of government people on the board of directors, even the private companies. As such, they are privileged to things that we in the West can only speculate about

I mourn the demise of the British car industry, but it was our own fault. It is not that the British are not capable, factories under Japanese ownership are some of the most productive in the world. However, an industry needs a strategy and support form the government. Britain has sadly lacked in this area. China on the other hand sees the automotive industry as a pillar of its economy and as such will push it. I am glad that China have taken what was left of the British car industry. I hope they succeed where we failed. I am also glad that they have their technical centres in the UK.

How far the middle kingdom has come, and how far it has to go. I for one have realised this and am studying Chinese. As an Engineer I see the exciting developments happening in China and I wish to be a part of it.:)

As for the China bashing on this thread, I say fair cop to it. You have to have both sides to any argument. Anyway, the rate that the Chinese Auto manufactures are going, it will not take long to show the doubters or prove us wrong!:confused:

P.S, If any of you are connected with the Chinese Automotive industry, it would be great to hear from you. Being so far away, it’s hard to gather information! I’m sure I need to be put straight on a few facts!:thumb:
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
92 Posts
We live in a free world, and all the people have opportunity

:nono: I respect all the position of the people. But I love to live in a free world. I ask to this man, If you now how many time Chinas are doing parts to all the big companys cars in the world. They put big money in this companies to sale in high prices cars and they have more profit. Give to all the people more oportunited. I love my world, China are doing good :thumb:
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
1,055 Posts
archedestral said:
I don't see a niche market, I see a mass market!! I hate to say it but with soaring oil prices and more importantly that ever, environmental concerns, a developing country like China has a huge advantage. Conditions are right in China; a supportive government, a growing affluent population who are concerned about the environment and probably most importantly a highly motivated/funded business community. In that you have a recipe that may just well create a world standard indigenous automotive industry within a few years and within as short a timescale again, a world leader in alternative fuel cell technology. Why not!

What you must consider, is that to change technology, especially entrenched technology such as the petrol/diesel car, you require infrastructure. Infrastructure is not owned by GM, Toyota, Renault or Honda. The Government ultimately decides! And the government can give the advantage to its own companies by pushing them in a certain direction. China is different to most countries in that its business make up has a large proportion of government people on the board of directors, even the private companies. As such, they are privileged to things that we in the West can only speculate about

I mourn the demise of the British car industry, but it was our own fault. It is not that the British are not capable, factories under Japanese ownership are some of the most productive in the world. However, an industry needs a strategy and support form the government. Britain has sadly lacked in this area. China on the other hand sees the automotive industry as a pillar of its economy and as such will push it. I am glad that China have taken what was left of the British car industry. I hope they succeed where we failed. I am also glad that they have their technical centres in the UK.

How far the middle kingdom has come, and how far it has to go. I for one have realised this and am studying Chinese. As an Engineer I see the exciting developments happening in China and I wish to be a part of it.:)

As for the China bashing on this thread, I say fair cop to it. You have to have both sides to any argument. Anyway, the rate that the Chinese Auto manufactures are going, it will not take long to show the doubters or prove us wrong!:confused:

P.S, If any of you are connected with the Chinese Automotive industry, it would be great to hear from you. Being so far away, it’s hard to gather information! I’m sure I need to be put straight on a few facts!:thumb:
some good points,
welcome to chinacarforums archedestral :)
 
41 - 60 of 67 Posts
Top