Now try and sell that brand new 4 door Isuzu for $10,000 - you don't think they can sell 100,000 of them a year? Same with the Subaru's Baja (the styling is aweful I know). You'd be crazy not to.
In my mind, this "small truck" entry from a Chinese truck maker, must meet any and all minimum requirements to enter the US market. With that said, we don't need to worry about service and parts - those demands will be met. The truck will have to be modern and well-built, with as many parts already available on the market as possible - such as piston rings and gaskets. A crappy product is simply not acceptable here, the success of any strategy depends on it. The size should be similar to last gen Toyota Tacoma.
Small car segment is not booming?!? The segment is up some 15+% in some reports I've seen, while the overall market is down. Even the about to be redesigned Corolla is setting records. Good luck trying to buy a Yaris or Fit. You mentioned Scion - now imagine Scion coming out with a hot uni-body compact pickup, inline with the rest of the lineup, with tons of personalization parts and a low price - I'd think that would sell very well.
Yes, the gas price has come down from the $3+ we paid in CA over the summer, but people are shell-shocked and everyone understands that we will again see $3 soon, if not $4. The "casual" buyers of trucks, which is about 70% of them, are switching out of trucks because they don't have a choice.
I don't know where you live, but from where I stand, I can see a lot of first time car buyers, young people, low-income folks, people who want a second or third car, or want something to haul or tow their toys around (such as dirt bikes or jet ski) to be interested in a well-built and well-backed brand new compact pickup starting under $9,000 and fuel efficient. Selling 100,000 a year is not out of the question.
Used cars outsell new ones by 3 to 1. So for every 3 people who would choose a used truck, 1 would choose a new one. Yeah, plenty of people would take your used F-150, but there will be folks who would take my new truck instead for the same money.
I don't disagree that there will be challenges. But I still believe this is the easiest vehicle segment for the Chinese cars to enter. If Chinese car makers can't even successfully enter this segment, they shouldn't come to the US market at all.
Btw, if you don't think this is the easiest segment, please suggest which one is...?